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Flames vs. Blues Odds, Picks, Predictions: Calgary’s Offense Is Relentless (Jan. 27)

Flames vs. Blues Odds, Picks, Predictions: Calgary’s Offense Is Relentless (Jan. 27) article feature image

Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Johnny Gaudreau.

  • The Blues are favored tonight against the surging Flames.
  • Calgary pounded St. Louis 7-1 last week and has been on a roll offensively.
  • Tony Sartori breaks down the matchup and delivers his pick for bettors below.

Flames vs. Blues Odds

Flames Odds+110
Blues Odds-130
Time8 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The St. Louis Blues get a shot at redemption when they host the Calgary Flames. Just three nights ago, the Flames steamrolled the Blues as they cruised to a 7-1 win.

Will the Blues get their revenge on home ice, or will the Flames prove too strong once again?

Flames Present Relentless Offensive Attack

The Flames enter the second half of a back-to-back as they travel to St. Louis following their 6-0 stomping of the Blue Jackets on Wednesday night. Calgary winning blowout games seems to be a recurring trend lately, as it has now won three of its last four games, with those wins coming by an average margin of 5.33 goals.

Not only are the Flames outscoring their opponents, but they are controlling the zone and outshooting the opposing teams as if they are scrimmaging teams from the WCHL (no offense to teams in the WCHL). Over those four games, the Flames are outshooting their opponents 188-104, which carries an average differential of 21 shots per game (!).

You read that number correctly, 188 shots over their last four games, an average of 47 shots on net per contest. This team is absolutely dialed in right now, and I expect this positive regression to continue for Calgary.

I have long thought the Flames would be Stanley Cup contenders since the beginning of the season, but the results have just not been there. They're currently fourth in the Pacific Division with a 19-12-6 record.

The positive regression I was just talking about appears to be on its way, which makes sense as the Flames rank fourth in 5-on-5 expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF) and ninth in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA).

Usually, if a team has elite analytics both offensively and defensively, then it's sitting at or near the top of its division. I expect the Flames to keep It going tonight in St. Louis, and there will be a lot of value in Calgary moving forward.

While they are on the second half of a back-to-back tonight, backup goaltender Daniel Vladar has been more than serviceable. Vladar boasts a 0.910 save percentage with two shutouts in nine starts.

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Blues Face Difficult Test

Look, I understand all of the non-numerical reasons to back the Blues tonight. They are at home facing a team they just got embarrassed by earlier in the week 7-1, a clear-cut revenge spot.

The Blues are not only in a revenge spot, but they're catching Calgary in the second half of a road back-to-back starting a backup goaltender.  But the Flames are playing unreal hockey right now and the Blues are not, quite frankly.

The Blues have been pretty good this season, as they sit third in a top-heavy Central Division with a 25-12-5. But I think regression is coming for St. Louis, as it currently ranks 19th in the league in 5-on-5 expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF) and 29th in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA).

Flames vs. Blues Pick

I predict that this week is the time we look back at during the playoffs as the turning point in the season for Calgary. This group is absolutely buzzing right now and looks unstoppable. With the clear analytical advantage, I love catching the Flames at plus money.

The Flames just beat St. Louis three nights ago, outscoring them 7-1 and outshooting them 47-31. While I think tonight will be much closer, I like Calgary to get it done again.

Pick: Flames +110 (play up to -120)

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