NHL Odds & Picks for Flyers vs. Oilers: Why the Over/Under Presents Value (October 27)

NHL Odds & Picks for Flyers vs. Oilers: Why the Over/Under Presents Value (October 27) article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Connor McDavid.

  • The Oilers are heavy -165 favorites on Wednesday night against the Flyers.
  • Both teams have been impressive to start the year, especially on offense.
  • Jacob McKenna breaks down the matchup and delivers his betting pick below.

Flyers vs. Oilers Odds

Flyers Odds +145
Oilers Odds -165
Over/Under 6.5
Time 10 p.m. ET
TV TNT
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The Philadelphia Flyers begin a three-game road trip through Canada on Wednesday when they face off against the Edmonton Oilers.

Philadelphia comes into this one at 2-1-1 with victories against the Bruins and the NHL’s newest franchise in the Seattle Kraken. Edmonton is one of four teams remaining that has yet to suffer a loss, entering Wednesday at 5-0 and firing on all cylinders.

Both of these squads have had at least three days off to prepare for this matchup and have been in plenty of high-scoring games to start the season. That makes the total worth a look in this game.

Flyers Offense Appears To Be Back

After a disappointing season in 2021, the Flyers are looking to change their fortunes and get back to the playoffs.

Last season, Philly had issues everywhere. It struggled mightily on defense, giving up the second-most goals in 5-on-5, and Carter Hart couldn’t stop many pucks that came his way.

The Flyers weren’t much better offensively either. In 5-on-5 situations, they ranked in the bottom 11 in expected goals for (xGF) per 60 minutes, bottom six in high-danger chances per 60 minutes and barely inside the top 15 in goals scored.

However, it appears Philadelphia has flipped the switch this season, at least on the offensive end.

Philadelphia now finds itself inside the top 10 in goals scored at even strength and is ranked 12th in xGF/60, proving it definitely has the ability to find the net.

However, defense still remains a bit of an issue for this group. Through four games, Philly has an xGA/60 of 2.78 and is giving up 12.82 high-danger chances per 60 minutes, both of which rank bottom five in the league. Ryan Ellis, who the Flyers traded for this offseason to improve the defense, will not suit up for this matchup either, which could pose another issue.

Carter Hart will likely get the start in net. Hart has an save percentage (SV%) of .941 and a high-danger save percentage (HDSv%) of .833 in three starts.

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Edmonton Offense Led By Stars

The Oilers have been one of the best teams in the league in the early season, and a lot of that is thanks to their studs Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

McDavid entered Tuesday leading the league in points with 13, and Draisaitl was right behind him in third at 11.

As a result of the play of those two, Edmonton once again finds itself as one of the top offenses in the league. In 5-on-5 situations, the Oilers rank 11th in goals scored, eighth in xGF per 60 minutes, and eighth in high-danger chances for per 60 minutes with 11.86.

Furthermore, Edmonton has 23 total goals this season when you look at its scores in all situations, the fourth most in the league. That is thanks to being the best power-play team in the league, which converts on 47% of its chances when it has the upper hand, and the Flyers just so happen to have the second-most penalty minutes in the league.

Mikko Koskinen will start in net for the Oilers, and he has so far been good with a SV% of .944 and a HDSV% of .875. Every game that Koskinen has started this season has seen a total of at least six goals, and I like the high-scoring trend to continue.

Oilers vs. Flyers Pick

The season did just begin, but both teams have been in some shootouts early on.

There have been at least six goals scored in four of Edmonton’s five games, and Philadelphia is in a similar position with at least six goals scored in all four games, including three with seven or more.

In addition, Edmonton is giving up the most shots on goal per game with 37.6, and the Flyers are right there at 33.5. Both teams are also in the top four in goals scored per game.

Edmonton should be able to maneuver through the Philly defense with ease and find the back of the net, while I expect the Flyers to keep pace and score some goals of their own.

The early total is set at 6.5, which is relatively high, but it’s a number these teams are more than capable of eclipsing.

Pick: Over 6.5 (-120)

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