NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Golden Knights vs. Devils (January 24)

Golden Knights vs. Devils Odds

Two teams heading in opposite directions clash when the New Jersey Devils host the Vegas Golden Knights on Tuesday night.

The Devils are 7-1-2 over their last 10 to move within two points of the Metropolitan Division lead.

Conversely, Vegas has dropped five of its previous 10, with three teams within three points of it for the top spot in the Pacific Division.

New Jersey's advantage may be more pronounced than the betting market implies.

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Golden Knights Looking to Pick Up Offensive Production

Although the Golden Knights have outplayed their last two opponents, their efforts aren't that impressive when adjusted for opponents.

Moreover, Vegas' offensive metrics have fallen off a cliff, leaving little hope that it will be able to keep pace with its offensively-gifted hosts.

Those issues will be compounded by playing its sixth straight game on the road.

The Golden Knights have struggled to maintain their offensive production at five-on-five. The Pacific Division leaders have been held to nine or fewer high-danger scoring chances and 25 or fewer scoring chances in four of their past five.

It's worth noting that all but one of those contests came as the host, and only one of their opponents ranks in the top 10 in chances allowed.

That means the Golden Knights were held in check by some of the worst defenses in the league, despite having home-ice advantage.

Predictably, the diminished production metrics have resulted in decreased scoring and expected goals-for ratings. Vegas has recorded just four goals at five-on-five over its five-game sample, being held off the scoresheet in three of those.

Further, the expected goals-for ratings have favored the Golden Knights' opponents in three of the five contests, with Vegas posting a cumulative 47.4% rating across that stretch.

Right now, Vegas' efforts are incompatible with good outcomes.

The Rise of the Devils

After years of suffering as one of the worst franchises in the NHL, the Devils have turned a corner with their 2022-23 squad.

New Jersey is an elite analytics team with talented playmakers throughout its defense, making it a legitimate postseason threat.

The Devils continue to get top-tier output from their skilled forward group, a trend they should maintain against the Golden Knights.

Through 46 games, the Devils have the second-best expected goals-for rating in the league. Offensive production has been the foundation of their success, with the Devils ranking first in scoring chances and sixth in high-danger opportunities.

However, that's not to downplay its defensive zone structure, as New Jersey also ranks in the top four in high-danger and scoring opportunities allowed.

New Jersey recently returned home after a five-game road trip in which its production metrics took a hit.

Consequently, the Devils' chances per game have fallen below their season-long averages, negatively impacting the output.

The Devils are scoring on just 5.6% of their shots over their last three games, well below their 8.8% benchmark.

Back in their friendly confines, the Devils are natural progression candidates as production and output start to work back up toward normal ranges.

Golden Knights vs. Devils Pick

Neither team has exceptional metrics right now, but the Golden Knights have been unable to build any offensive momentum despite playing against some of the worst defensive teams in the league.

Now they travel to take on a New Jersey squad that has the benefit of playing on home ice and should start to see an increase in scoring in its coming games.

The odds are stacked against Vegas in this one, and we're backing the home team.

Pick: New Jersey Devils -165

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