NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Golden Knights vs Flames (Monday, November 27)
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Jonathan Huberdeau #10 of the Calgary Flames
Golden Knights vs. Flames Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Flames vs. Stars on Monday, Nov. 27 – our expert NHL preview and prediction.
In the late window on Monday's NHL slate, the Calgary Flames host the Vegas Golden Knights in a Pacific Division tilt. The home team typically fares well in this divisional battle, winning 13 of the past 17 meetings.
Will Calgary extend that trend, or can Vegas take care of business as short road favorites?
Let's preview the NHL odds, and make a Golden Knights vs. Flames prediction.
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After a 10-0-1 start to begin the campaign, regression has hit Vegas as it has gone below .500 over its past 10 games. This regression was predictable due to the Knights strongly outplaying their underlying metrics, primarily on the defensive side of the ice.
At 5-on-5, Vegas ranks 18th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). It still ranks third in actual goals allowed per game, so I suspect further regression is also looming.
Additionally, I strongly believe that Adin Hill is due to come back down to earth. Since last year's Cup run, Hill has proven to be a reliable starting NHL netminder.
With that said, his .932 SV% and 1.97 GAA through 12 starts this season feels unsustainable. First, Hill was a guy that was up-and-down between the show and the AHL for every single season prior to last.
Even when he was up in the NHL, Hill has a career .913 SV%. Which, again, is good, but not .932-good.
This regression could come to fruition against the Flames, a team he owns a .897 SV% and 3.67 GAA against through three career starts.
While there are a lot of issues with Calgary's game, it has proven the ability to hang with Cup contending teams with Friday's 7-4 win on the road over the Dallas Stars. I expect an extra buzz in the Scotiabank Saddledome on Monday as the Flames return home for the first time in over a week and go against a divisional opponent, who are also the defending Cup champions.
That extra bulletin board material should help make the difference for a Calgary team that is due for some positive regression. At 5-on-5, the Flames rank 17th in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and 13th in xGA/60, the latter of which is an even higher rank than Vegas.
Those are two rankings better than their 21st ranking in goals scored per game and 20th ranking in goals allowed per game. Additionally, Jacob Markstrom has been seeing the puck well recently.
Over his past six starts in the crease, Markstrom is 4-1-1 with a .906 SV% and 2.81 GAA. Finally, over his past five starts against the Knights, he is 3-2 with a .906 SV% and 2.48 GAA.
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At the time of writing, ESPN BET is the only book in the market that is offering Calgary's moneyline at plus-money. We are catching somewhere between a two-to-10-cent edge compared to the rest of the market, although I would still play it up to a pick 'em.
As mentioned in the intro, the home team has fared exceptionally well in this matchup, which should not be all that shocking in a divisional battle. We are also catching Vegas in a relative downturn, and its underlying metrics suggest further correction is likely.
On the other hand, the Flames' analytics are better than their 8-10-3 record suggests, and if this blue line and Markstrom continues to play how they have been playing recently, then Calgary will be a live 'dog on Monday night.