NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Islanders vs Blue Jackets (Thursday, April 4)
- Hockey betting expert Brian Paget looks over the Islanders vs. Blue Jackets odds, then makes an NHL betting pick.
Islanders vs. Blue Jackets Odds
| Islanders Odds | -185 |
| Blue Jackets Odds | +155 |
| Over / Under | 6 -115o / -105u |
Here's everything you need to know about the New York Islanders vs. Columbus Blue Jackets on Thursday, April 4 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
On Thursday, the New York Islanders head to Nationwide Arena to take on the Columbus Blue Jackets for the third and final time this season. New York will look to sweep the season series after earning 2-0 and 7-3 victories in October and December respectively.
The Islanders desperately need another win to keep their playoff push alive, but the Blue Jackets have relished the opportunity to play spoiler lately.
Let’s dig into the NHL odds and make a prediction for this Metropolitan Division matchup.
After a six-game losing skid, the Islanders have played themselves back into the playoff picture with four wins over their past six games. But they haven’t done so in particularly convincing fashion.
New York’s recent wins over the Winnipeg Jets and Florida Panthers were impressive, but its past two — an overtime victory over the Philadelphia Flyers after another blown third-period lead and a third-period comeback victory over the lowly Chicago Blackhawks — don’t inspire confidence.
Regardless, the Islanders head to Columbus just one point out of a playoff spot.
The change that has perhaps sparked the Islanders of late has been the decision to effectively hand the reins to goaltender Semyon Varlamov — who should get the nod against Columbus — in favor of Ilya Sorokin. Varlamov is 3-1-0 over his past four starts with a 2.75 GAA and a .919 SV%.
New York’s underlying numbers across its past six games haven’t been particularly strong, though. The Islanders have played to a 49.35 xGF% at 5-on-5, and are surrendering 2.71 xGA/60 at 5-on-5. On an individual level, the good news is that Bo Horvat has gotten back on track with goals in back-to-back games after six games without a goal.
Overall, the Islanders will likely need to step it up a notch over their final seven regular-season games to squeak into the playoffs.
The Blue Jackets aren’t playing for anything at this point and have generally struggled of late, but they’ve also proven capable of surprising top opponents who may overlook them.
Over the past month, Columbus has managed to beat the Vegas Golden Knights, Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche, and it heads into Thursday’s tilt having won two in a row, albeit following a six-game losing streak.
The underlying numbers from the Blue Jackets' past 10 games aren’t pretty. Their 39.38 xGF% at 5-on-5 is the worst in the NHL, as is their 3.32 xGA/60 at 5-on-5. They're also allowing 37.23 SA/60, the most in the NHL. While Columbus has managed to squeak out some wins, they're certainly not consistently getting the better of play.
Goaltender Elvis Merzlikins should get the start for the Blue Jackets on Thursday. He posted a 4.84 GAA and a .869 SV% across seven starts in March. On the season, his -6.30 GSAx ranks 11th-worst among netminders.
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Islanders vs. Blue Jackets
Betting Pick & Prediction
Although the Islanders haven’t driven play at a particularly high level lately, they appear poised to control the puck on Thursday.
As a result, two props I’m eyeing are the over on Merzlinkins’ saves total and Matthew Barzal to find the back of the net.
The Merzlikins angle is purely due to the volume of shots the Blue Jackets have been allowing. New York has recorded 30.69 SF/60 over its past 10 games, and Merzlikins has made at least 29 saves in each of his past three starts.
I expect the total to be set at 28.5.
In terms of Barzal, the Blue Jackets are simply a weak defensive team and the Islanders’ most dynamic forward feels due for a goal. He has an assist in each of New York’s last two games since being put back on a line with Bo Horvat.
It’s Barzal’s turn to find the back of the net.
Picks: Elvis Merzlikins Over 28.5 Saves | Matthew Barzal Anytime Goalscorer
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