NHL Odds, Pick, Prediction: Islanders vs. Senators (February 1)
Mike Stobe/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: New York Islanders standout Anthony Beauvillier.
Islanders vs. Senators Odds
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
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Five of the Ottawa Senators’ 14 wins have come over their past 10 games, but they’re still not getting the respect in the betting market.
The Senators enter Tuesday’s contest against the New York Islanders as +225 underdogs after Monday’s 3-2 overtime victory against the Edmonton Oilers. The Islanders have some momentum of their own, winning six of 10, but the more notable trend has been these teams’ offensive metrics.
New York Islanders
The Islanders have less momentum over the recent sample, losing two consecutive games heading into this Eastern Conference matchup. However, they have strong underlying metrics. Those metrics give them an advantage over Ottawa, which is playing the second night of a back-to-back set.
New York’s analytics success is driven by strong offensive performances. The Islanders have attempted 10 or more high-danger chances at 5-on-5 in four of their last five games, out-chancing their opponents in all four games.
Those metrics look even better across all strengths, as the Islanders are averaging 13.2 quality opportunities over the five-game sample, including 33 cumulative chances over their two-game losing streak.
The data contributes to a 58.9% expected goals-for rating at 5-on-5, with New York outplaying four of its five previous opponents. There’s a disconnect in outcomes, though, as New York has just four wins and a 0.965 PDO during that stretch. Those are good indicators that the Islanders are due for better outcomes.
Good results are something the Senators can relate to, as they have three wins in their past five outings. However, Ottawa has been exhausting their puck luck in the process, as it has been outplayed at 5-on-5 in three of those contests. Those issues will be compounded by playing on a second consecutive night, which the Senators have struggled with all season.
Ottawa has played seven back-to-backs this season, getting outplayed at 5-on-5 on the second night in every contest. Cumulatively, their metrics take a hit under this scenario, as they’ve posted a 40.9% xG rating below their season-long number of 46.9%. The Senators will be relying on backup goaltender Anton Forsberg to keep them afloat after starting Matt Murray against the Oilers.
Back-to-backs notwithstanding, the Senators’ offense has looked good of late. Ottawa has attempted 11 or more high-danger and 29 or more scoring chances at 5-on-5 in three of its four outings.
The Senators haven’t translated that to increased output, though, as they’re below their season-long shooting percentage in three of those games. We could see their output increase, as scoring catches up with production metrics.
Islanders vs. Senators Pick
Circumstances favor the Islanders in this meeting. However, the betting market might be overvaluing their chances, as the current betting price comes with a 72.6% implied probability.
There’s an edge in backing the home side if the moneyline price comes down to the -200 range. Otherwise, we’re comfortable pulling the trigger on the total clearing six goals at the UBS Arena. Both offenses are flourishing, so we’re expecting goals to flow more naturally for both teams.
Pick: Total Over 6 (+105)