Islanders vs. Stars NHL Betting Odds & Picks: Target the Total in Dallas

Islanders vs. Stars NHL Betting Odds & Picks: Target the Total in Dallas article feature image

Kavin Mistry/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Pavelski #16 of the Dallas Stars.

  • The Stars host the Islanders in a matchup of two teams that have been playing well.
  • It wouldn't be a shock to see either side come away with the victory, so our analyst is targeting the total.
  • Greg Liodice previews the game and shares his best bet below.

Islanders vs. Stars Odds

Islanders Odds+128
Stars Odds-154
Over/Under5.5 (-120/-102)
Time8 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

After a disappointing loss in Nashville, the New York Islanders head to Texas to take on the Dallas Stars. In the month of November, the Islanders have gone 6-3 and have been one of the league's better teams.

The Stars have a similar record this month to their counterparts, going 5-2-1. They’re coming off a convincing win in Florida, beating the Panthers 6-4.

Which one of these hot November teams takes the fall at American Airlines Center? Let’s jump in:

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New York Islanders

After a mediocre year, the Islanders' finishers are back to their top-notch play. Mathew Barzal and Brock Nelson are both generating a point per game and captain Anders Lee isn’t far behind. They’ve also received stellar play on the backend from Noah Dobson, who is taking steps every year to become an elite defender in this league.

Even though the models have told us otherwise, the Islanders have been more of an offensive force than years past. They don’t drive play as much, placing in the bottom 10 in expected goals with a 46.8 xGF%, but are 14th in high danger chances. While on the power play, New York is placing toward the middle, scoring at a 20.8% pace. Two aspects that have made this team so successful are the abilities to capitalize on opportunities and play from behind.

Under Barry Trotz’ coaching, the Islanders were one of the more stifling defenses, but this year is a bit different. They’re 31st with an xGA/60 of 3.12 and have relied on quality goaltending. The penalty kill has still been a force with the fourth-best success rate (83.3%).

Ilya Sorokin has been playing to elite numbers with an +8.7 goals saved above expected (GSAx) and a .925 SV%.

Dallas Stars

Dallas is a team on the rise with an incredible young core and experienced veterans who know how to win. Jason Robertson is already a star and Roope Hintz has become a great piece, averaging over a point per game. Behind them, Joe Pavelski is providing his usual point per game production and captain Jamie Benn is having a resurgence after a few disappointing seasons.

When diving into the models, it’s no surprise as to why Dallas sits atop the Central Division. The Stars have been one of the better play drivers, sitting 10th at a 51.91 xGF%. They've also generated the 12th-most high danger chances. Along with that, they’ve been one of the best teams on the power play and are succeeding at 31.4%.

Not only are they exceptional at driving play, but they’ve also been one of the better defensive teams. Dallas has played to a solid 2.6 xGA/60 and has the fifth-best penalty kill with an 82.9% success rate.

It looks like Jake Oettinger will be getting a heavy workload since backup Scott Wedgewood suffered a scary injury Thursday. Oettinger was always the starter, but coach Peter DeBoer has done a great job at not overworking him. Regardless, the man they call “Otter” has been incredible so far, playing to an +8.8 GSAx and a .927 SV%.

Islanders vs. Stars Pick

Despite the elite goaltending on both ends, these teams often find themselves in high-scoring games. The Islanders have been known to trail in games and make heroic comebacks. Meanwhile, the Stars have, for the most part, blown out their opponents.

I think this could be a high-scoring game as the outcome is fairly unpredictable. I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from both teams, but judging from the past 10 games, targeting the total seems to be the move here.

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