NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Jets vs Ducks (Friday, January 5)
Via Ric Tapia/Getty Images. Pictured: Anaheim Ducks goaltender John Gibson (36) in net during an NHL hockey game against the Florida Panthers on November 17, 2023 at Honda Center in Anaheim, CA.
Jets vs. Ducks Odds
| Jets Odds | -170 |
| Ducks Odds | +140 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 (+112 / -138) |
The Anaheim Ducks have been little more than a speed bump for most teams this season.
Anaheim sits 30th in the NHL standings, accumulating 13 wins through its first 37 games of the season.
Still, we've seen improved efforts from the Ducks over their recent sample, stealing a win against the Vegas Golden Knights before giving the Toronto Maple Leafs everything they could handle in an overtime loss.
They'll need to replicate that energy on Friday night as they host the mighty Winnipeg Jets.
Winnipeg is coming into this one on the second night of a back-to-back, misplaying their cards ahead of this one. That could give Anaheim the edge it needs to score its 14th win of the campaign.
Let's dive into my Jets vs. Ducks preview and prediction.
The Jets are putting the "win" in Winnipeg this year.
The Central Division contenders sit just one point back of the Colorado Avalanche with two games in hand.
More impressively, the Jets haven't suffered a regulation loss since December 12, going 8-0-2 since then. In doing so, they've elevated their PDO beyond sustainable levels, implying a cooling-off period is on the horizon.
PDO is a combination of shooting and save percentages. It will always average out to 1.000, but inevitably teams fall on either end of the spectrum. The longer you stay on the upper end of the spectrum, the more unsustainable it becomes to maintain the PDO. That's because you're extracting maximum value from all parts of your roster.
Last year, the Boston Bruins ended the campaign with a 1.036 PDO, with the New York Islanders finishing a distant second place at 1.015. The year before, it was the St. Louis Blues who led the way, accumulating a 1.024 PDO from start to finish.
The Jets are testing the upper boundary of those limits across their 10-game sample. Over that stretch, Winnipeg has elevated its PDO to 1.062, pushing its season-long average to 1.030.
Inevitably, that metric will start working its way back down, with shooting and save percentages coming back into normal ranges.
Curiously, Rick Bowness elected to start Connor Hellebuyck on Thursday night against the inferior San Jose Sharks. That leaves Laurent Brossoit to tend the pipes against a more skilled Ducks side. Those goaltending decisions could precipitate regression, as the Jets' backup netminder is left to prop up a tired squad on Friday night.
Not a lot has gone right for the Anaheim Ducks this season. Wins have been scarce, and their metrics reflect that.
Anaheim ranks 30th in expected goals-for rating, compiling a disappointing 47.0% benchmark halfway through the 2023-24 season.
Still, things aren't as bad as their metrics imply and there are a few indicators supporting the Ducks are progression candidates.
Most prominently, the Ducks are operating well below their expected levels. Their actual goals-for rating of 40.8% is a significant deviation from 47.0%, suggesting that Anaheim is due for some puck luck over its coming games.
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Improved output is also reflected in their PDO, as the Ducks bottom out with a 0.975 mark, second-worst in the NHL.
We are starting to see some of those metrics tick up over the past few games, though. The Ducks have a PDO above 1.000 in five of their past 10, getting improved production in both ends of the ice.
Across that sample, Ducks goalies have combined for a 92.3% save percentage, falling below the 90.0% threshold just once over that span.
Sadly, scoring has been the limiting factor, with Anaheim recording one or fewer goals at five-on-five in six of those 10 outings.
Jets vs. Ducks
Betting Pick & Prediction
For the Ducks to succeed, they need to get more production and output out of their forward group.
Thankfully, the Jets offer a remedy for that situation. Winnipeg comes into Friday's contest with the backup goalie, playing on consecutive days and for the third time in four nights. That could be the advantage the Ducks need to get back to their winning ways.
We're playing the Ducks on the moneyline at +150 or better, insulating our position with an overtime play as well.
Picks: Ducks +160 (DraftKings) | 60-Minute Tie +360 (FanDuel)
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