NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Jets vs. Kraken (November 13)

Jets vs. Kraken Odds

Both the Jets and Kraken have surprisingly strong records this season, and it's somewhat realistic we could see each of these sides claim a playoff berth out of the West.

Moneypuck gives the Kraken a 76.8% chance at claiming a playoff spot while the Jets have a 72.5% chance.

A win in this matchup will improve Winnipeg's chances of claiming a postseason berth by 3.2%, but the Jets are in a tough spot against a Kraken team that has played legitimately good hockey this season.

Are the Kraken worthy favorites at -155 against a Jets team which has a better record to this point?

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Will Rittich Step Up for the Jets?

The Jets have played a far better brand of hockey under new bench boss Rick Bowness this season, and last night's losing performance against a desperate Flames side in Calgary was arguably still a positive reflection of this.

Even still, the Jets own just a 48.82% Expected Goals rate at even strength and have more or less kept games close and let star netminder Connor Hellebuyck do his thing.

Hellebuyck is making an early case for his second Vezina trophy as he has played to a +10.5 Goals Saved Above Expected rating (GSAx) with a .935 save percentage in 11 games played this season. However, he is likely to rest tonight.

So naturally, whenever Hellebuyck is not making the start, the Jets become a far less formidable opponent because David Rittich projects to be a below-average backup this season. Rittich owns a -1.9 GSAx and .885 save percentage in two appearances this season.

Those marks are nearly identical to Rittich's numbers from last season with the Predators. Rittich played to a -7.5 GSAx and .887 save percentage then, so the sample of poor play from Rittich has become meaningful.

Kraken Surging in Year Two

It may have come a year later than many have expected, but the Seattle Kraken are producing the kind of results many thought were possible in their inaugural campaign.

Seattle enters with an 8-5-2 record and has controlled play to a 53.3% Expected Goals rate at even strength, which suggests such a strong record is far from good luck.

The Kraken have quietly built a very deep roster, and what they lack in elite talent is certainly made up for with depth–Seattle has a ton of players who are irritating to play against.

They also feature a number of elite offensive play-drivers who are reliable at both ends of the ice, such as Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand, who set the tone for an offensive unit which does a lot of the little things well.

The Kraken are still widely undervalued by the public and arguably even in the betting markets. They are priced at around +100 to make the postseason despite favorable positioning and underlying metrics.

Seattle's roster dictates continued success of this level is realistic, especially if the team can continue to receive decent goaltending.

Martin Jones will likely start for the Kraken in this contest, and he owns a +4.0 GSAx and .910 save percentage in 12 games played.

Jets vs. Kraken Pick

The Kraken have controlled play at a higher rate than the Jets this season, which is not entirely surprising considering the Kraken quietly hold a very deep roster.

The Kraken are capable of coming in waves and are far from a fun matchup on night two of a road back-to-back.

Seattle will likely control more of the overall play by a decent margin, and Winnipeg likely will not have its greatest edge, Hellebuyck, who is likely to rest.

Official confirmation of Rittich starting will likely send this game's regular moneyline to around -165, and at the current price of +115 for the Kraken to win in regulation, I believe we are getting a really good number.

Pick: Seattle Kraken 3-Way Moneyline +115 (Play to +105)