NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Lightning vs Senators (Sunday, October 15)
Chris Tanouye/Freestyle Photography/Getty Images. Pictured: Mathieu Joseph and Anton Forsberg
Lightning vs Senators Odds
| Lightning Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -230 | 6.5 -125o / +105u | +100 |
| Senators Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +190 | 6.5 -125o / +105u | -120 |
It's rare for the Tampa Bay Lightning to enter a game as underdogs, but that will be the case Sunday versus the Ottawa Senators.
Tampa Bay is the better team on paper, but the Lightning are vulnerable. Not only are they missing starting goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (back), but Tampa Bay had to play Saturday night in Detroit, so the squad will be arriving in Ottawa tired.
The Senators had to play Saturday, too, but at least the Senators' contest was in the afternoon, and they got to sleep in their own beds before playing at home for the second straight day.
Still, even if the Senators have the home-ice advantage and are arguably the better-rested team, is that really enough to tip the scales in their favor?
Here is my Lightning vs. Senators pick and preview.
When Vasilevskiy got hurt, the Lightning were forced to turn Jonas Johansson into their de facto starter. Trusting the journeyman goaltender in that role is less than ideal, but it also had the trickledown effect of elevating Matt Tomkins from the AHL to the backup role. After Johansson started Saturday, Tomkins will likely guard the crease against Ottawa.
Tomkins has never started in an NHL game before and has just 36 contests worth of AHL experience. Most recently, he posted a 2.53 GAA and a .911 save percentage in 32 outings with Farjestads BK of the Swedish Hockey League, so he's entering this game as a complete unknown.
With a tired defense in front of him and the potent Senators' offense facing him, it's far from ideal circumstances for his first start.
Tampa Bay also struggled when playing on no rest last year, posting a 3-10-2 record, compared to Ottawa's 6-5-1 under the same circumstances.
Perhaps, part of that is a consequence of being a veteran team. Forwards Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos along with defenseman Victor Hedman give the Lightning a core most would be jealous of, but Point is the only player from that group not in his 30s.
With all that stacked against the Lightning, it becomes clear why they're underdogs.
Tampa Bay's goaltender is a huge question mark going into this contest, but Ottawa's netminder isn't a safe bet either. Anton Forsberg started Saturday, so Joonas Korpisalo will likely be between the pipes versus Tampa Bay.
Korpisalo struggled in the season opener, stopping 37 of 42 shots in a 6-3 loss to Carolina. He also has traditionally struggled versus the Lightning with a 4.04 GAA and a .875 save percentage in 11 career appearances.
Ottawa's potential issues extend beyond that. At the time of writing, Shane Pinto remains unsigned and Josh Norris (shoulder) is on the injured reserve, so the Senators are missing two of their top-three centers.
To be fair, though, those absences haven't significantly hindered their offensive depth thus far. Ottawa has still scored eight goals in two games, spread over six different players. The Senators also have 11 players with at least a point, including rookie Ridly Greig, who was elevated to the second-line center role due to the absences and picked up an assist Saturday.
Ottawa was OK offensively last year, ranking 18th while averaging 3.16 goals per game, but this team might make major strides in that regard this season. With forwards Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson along with offensive defenseman Jake Sanderson each being a year older, it's not surprising to see the Senators click even with a couple of notable absences.
Lightning vs Senators
Betting Pick & Prediction
Even with all that working in Ottawa's favor, the Lightning are getting plenty of respect with this line — too much, I'd argue.
Of the Lightning's 30 losses last year, 23 of them were occasions in which Tampa Bay lost by two or more goals. So if you're going to pick the Lightning to be defeated, expecting them to lose by at least two goals isn't an unreasonable prediction.
Given the inexperience of Tampa Bay's goaltender, the struggles last season in the second half of back-to-backs and this game being in Ottawa, I feel it's worth chasing that bigger potential payout by taking Ottawa on the puck line.
The Pick: Ottawa Senators Puck Line -1.5 (+195 at BetMGM)
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