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Maple Leafs vs. Panthers NHL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Why Scoring Shouldn’t Be Limited (April 23)

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers NHL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Why Scoring Shouldn’t Be Limited (April 23) article feature image
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Photo by Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images

  • The Leafs and Panthers square off in a heavyweight Atlantic Division tilt in South Florida.
  • Both offenses have been on fire and both teams have played high-scoring games as of late.
  • Here's why Tony Sartori is expecting the over to hit.

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Odds

Maple Leafs Odds +135
Panthers Odds -155
Over/Under 7 (-115/-105)
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

We have a heavyweight Atlantic Division tilt, as the second-place Toronto Maple Leafs travel to Florida to take on the first-place Panthers.

This is the third meeting between these two teams this season, as there have been seven or more total goals scored in each of the first two matchups.

Will we see another high-scoring affair between these two teams, or can the goaltenders step up this time around?

2 Factors Leading to Leafs’ High-Scoring Games

The Toronto Maple Leafs enter this contest following Thursday night’s 8-1 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning. Thursday’s game was yet another high-scoring game for the Maple Leafs, as there have been seven or more total goals scored in 12 of their last 14 games.

This trend is mainly due to two factors: an explosive offense and horrible goaltending. Toronto’s offense has been on fire, as it has scored an average of 4.79 goals per game over its last 14 contests.

For the season as a whole, Toronto ranks third in the league in five-on-five expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF).

Jack Campbell is the projected starting goaltender for the Maple Leafs, and he has not been the same when playing on the road this season.

Campbell’s save percentage dips to 0.903 when playing away from home, and he will have an extremely difficult task in improving that figure as he squares off against the best offense in the league.

This season, Campbell ranks just 29th amongst starting goaltenders in five-on-five goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx).


Panthers’ Offense Looks Unstoppable

The Florida Panthers enter this matchup following Thursday night’s 5-2 win over the Detroit Red Wings. Thursday’s win was yet another high-scoring affair for Florida, as it has seen seven or more total goals scored in 11 of its last 15 games.

Like Toronto, this trend has been due to inconsistent goaltending and great offensive play. Florida’s offense has been a wagon recently, as it has been all year. The offense is averaging 4.73 goals scored per game over its last 15 contests.

This season, Florida ranks first in the league in five-on-five expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF). Sergei Bobrovsky is the projected starting goaltender for the Panthers in this matchup, and he got chased early in his lone start against the Maple Leafs this season.

Before getting pulled in that game, Bobrovsky allowed four goals on just 14 shots for a lowly 0.714 save percentage. While Bobrovsky has had a stretch of good starts recently, those outings were against much weaker offenses (Red Wings, Islanders, Jets and Ducks).

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Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Pick

While this is an intimidating total to take the over on, I could see this game having at least 10 total goals scored. These two teams light the lamp at will and play at extremely fast paces. This game should be no different.

Even stretching back over the last few seasons, this matchup has seen seven or more total goals scored in nine of the last 10 meetings.

Pick: Maple Leafs/Panthers o7 (-115) | Play up to (-125)

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