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NHL Odds, Pick & Preview: Oilers vs. Canucks (Jan. 25)

NHL Odds, Pick & Preview: Oilers vs. Canucks (Jan. 25) article feature image
Credit:

Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Connor McDavid.

  • The Canucks host the Oilers as short home underdogs on Tuesday night.
  • Can we trust Vancouver at home despite an inexperienced goaltender?
  • Grant White breaks down the game and his best bet below.

Oilers vs. Canucks Odds

Oilers Odds -130
Canucks Odds +110
Over/Under 6
Time 10 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

Tuesday night features a Pacific Division battle between the Vancouver Canucks and Edmonton Oilers. Both teams have underachieved relative to pre-season prognostications and are clawing their way back into the playoff picture.

The Oilers are coming off a momentum-building win, while the Canucks have dropped a pair of decisions coming into Tuesday night. Does that leave an edge in backing Connor McDavid and company?

Edmonton Oilers

Edmonton continues to get elite production out of their top two lines, although Leon Draisaitl’s second line is doing most of the heavy lifting over the past few games. Draisaitl is coming off a four-point performance against the Calgary Flames on Saturday and has delivered 14 shots on target over his past four games. Splitting up Drai and McDavid is forcing teams to choose their line matchups more wisely, and that appears to be creating extra room for Draisaitl to operate.

As a team, the Oilers have put up 12 or more high-danger chances and 30 or more scoring chances across all strengths in two of their previous three games. Edmonton has managed to out-chance their opponents in both of those contests, facilitating two Expected Goals-For ratings above 50.0%. That makes it positive ratings in three of their past five games.

We’ve identified the Oilers as positive regression candidates over their coming games. Edmonton struggled with output and goaltending over their recent sample, causing a downturn in their PDO. In the four games leading up to Saturday night’s victory, the Oilers put together a 0.873 PDO, dropping their season-long metrics below 1.000. The Oilers have some metrics working in their favor now and should see their PDO continue to climb over their coming games.


Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks’ on-ice product continues to impress under Bruce Boudreau, but the results haven’t gone their way recently. Vancouver has dropped two straight and five of its past seven. Several factors have played into this cold streak, but goaltending is the main culprit over the last two losses.

Thatcher Demko was transferred to the COVID-19 list after testing positive for the virus a few days ago. Backup tendy Jaroslav Halak has languished in protocols for the past week after testing positive for the virus. That forced Spencer Martin into action, who, in a Shakespearean turn, landed on the COVID-19 list.

Consequently, fourth-stringer Michael DiPietro started against the St. Louis Blues last time out and is the projected starter against the Oilers. DiPietro stopped just 82.4% of shots against the Blues and will face more talented shooters on Tuesday.

The most concerning metric impacting the Canucks probability of success is their terrible penalty kill. We’ve seen how efficiently the Oilers operate with the man advantage, at one point scoring on nearly 50.0% of power play opportunities. Vancouver has a Kill Rate of 67.0%, the worst percentage in the NHL by a substantial margin. Edmonton’s top power play unit of Draisaitl and McDavid could be skating circles around Vancouver.

Oilers vs. Canucks Pick

Special teams could be the difference in this one. The Canucks’ ineffective penalty kill could hang their inexperienced goalie out to dry against one of the best power plays in the league. Edmonton has recorded four or more goals in two of their past three, and that upward trend could continue as its PDO works back up. The Oilers up to -145 are the side to be on.

Pick: Oilers -130

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