NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Predators vs. Oilers Pick, Best Bet (November 1)

Predators vs. Oilers Odds

After a three game homestand, the Nashville Predators head north of the border to take on the Edmonton Oilers. The Preds have had such a weird season so far. Starting off in Prague, they won their first two games, then lost six out of their last seven.

The Oilers come home after a 3-0 road trip including a passionate game against their provincial-rival Calgary Flames. It looks like Edmonton is starting to gain some consistency as they hope to continue their winning streak.

Does Nashville get back to their winning ways? Or does Edmonton move their winning streak to four?

Nashville Predators

Last season, Nashville surprised many by sneaking into the playoffs. They were able to get dynamite production out of players who failed to live up to their contracts (like Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen), which helped them significantly. Filip Forsberg is also a superstar in this league, scoring 40-plus goals last year, while a guy like Tanner Jeannot has become a fan favorite with his toughness and ability to score.

When looking at the numbers, it’s mind boggling how average this Predators team is. They’re ranked 16th in expected goals with a 49.71 xGF%, while averaging 8.7 high danger chances a game. Not only that, but their power play has been extremely subpar, only scoring at a 9.7% rate.

They’re just as mediocre on the defensive end. While the penalty kill is fairly strong with an 83.3% success rate, they have a 12th ranked xGA/60 of 2.74.

Juuse Saros played like one of the top goaltenders last season as Nashville relied on him a lot. It’s unlikely that he’ll play 67 games like he did last season, but durability was always his strength. This year, he’s playing to a +2.3 goals saved above expected (GSAx) and a .910 SV%. I don’t think that’s the best start for him, but I think he’ll improve as the season progresses.

Edmonton Oilers

Thinking about the Oilers always starts with the two headed juggernaut in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. McDavid is averaging two points a game while Draisaitl is averaging just a bit under that. Behind them both Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman are also posting over a point per game, and Evander Kane is close to that mark. You can always expect the Oilers to put up points any given night.

With the deadly forces on the offensive end, their 5 on 5 attack is pretty average to say the least. They currently have an 18th best 48.55 xGF% and average nine high danger chances a game. Where they get most of their production is through the power play, where they excel at a second best 34.5% rate.

On the defensive end, they’re fairly average. The penalty kill is nothing to write home about, only succeeding at a 75% rate, and they have an xGA/60 of 2.92, which is bottom 10 in the league.

The goaltending situation is such an interesting conundrum for Edmonton. After signing Jack Campbell to a lucrative five year contract, they haven’t gotten the production they had hoped for. He’s only posting a -2.1 GSAx and an .888 SV%. Instead, backup Stuart Skinner has shined in four games, playing to a +6.4 GSAx and an elite .955 SV%. Perhaps Campbell gets the start since Skinner played on Saturday, so keep an eye out.

Predators vs. Oilers Pick

Looking at this game, I see two teams that match up pretty evenly, with one glaring difference. Both Edmonton and Nashville are fairly average teams, but Edmonton has the star power and power play that can take them further.

While the Predators have a decent penalty kill, they’ve found themselves in the penalty box three or more times in all but two games. Edmonton is a team that can make the opposition pay for their mistakes no matter who is in net here.

One interesting note is that the Oilers have yet to see overtime all season long. So with that, them  having the star power and special teams advantage, I can see Edmonton taking this game in regulation.

Pick: Oilers 3-Way Line (-110)