NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Red Wings vs Kings (Thursday, January 4)
Gary A. Vasquez/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Anze Kopitar #11 of the Los Angeles Kings
Red Wings vs. Kings Odds
| Red Wings Odds | +158 |
| Kings Odds | -192 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 (-102 / -120) |
The Detroit Red Wings continue their brief three-game California road trip on Thursday night with a stop at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.
Motor City kick-started its roadie with a decisive 5-3 win over the San Jose Sharks and is looking to make it two wins in a row and three of their past four.
Standing in the Wings' way is a usually-dominant Los Angeles Kings squad that has fallen into a midseason rut over its recent sample.
The Kings have dropped three in a row, going 4-5-2 since Dec. 9. Consequently, LA is failing to keep pace with the frontrunners in the Pacific Division while also conceding ground to the teams beneath them in the standings.
Los Angeles needs to regain some traction on the ice. Thankfully, the Red Wings won't have much opposition in this inter-conference affair.
Here's a look at the Red Wings vs. Kings odds, prediction and betting pick for Thursday, Jan. 4.
The Red Wings had stayed competitive in the Atlantic Division through the first six weeks of the season; however, that unsustainable success has caught up with them over the last couple of months.
Detroit has just 10 wins over its last 23 games, resulting in the eighth-worst points percentage in the NHL. Sadly, the team's analytics suggest the worst is yet to come.
Since Nov. 13, Detroit has mustered a laughable 45.2% expected goals-for rating. That drops the team's season-long average to 46.7%, seventh-worst across the board.
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Worse, they are showing no signs of improvement with their current game scores. The Wings have been outplayed in five of their past six, deflating their expected goals-for rating even further to 44.8%.
Over that six-game stretch, the Red Wings have been out-chanced in high-danger chances in all but one contest, giving up an average of 10.7 per game. Moreover, they don't have the offensive structure to offset those shortcomings, attempting a paltry 6.8 high-danger and 18.3 scoring opportunities per contest.
This next part is probably going to hurt Red Wings fans the most: Detroit's PDO remains an inflated 1.012, further supporting ongoing regression.
That depressed play will continue against one of the top analytics teams in the league.
You wouldn't know it from their record, but some of the Kings' best efforts this season have come over the last couple of weeks.
They have posted expected goals-for ratings above 59.7% in five of their previous eight, accumulating a 58.6% cumulative rating across that sample. Those performances haven't yielded expected results, but a few key indicators are supporting a reversal of fortunes for the team.
First, Los Angeles' shooting percentage has fallen well below the normal range. Kings skaters have been held to a shooting percentage below 5.7% (5-on-5) in all but two of their last 11. That's contributed to a decreased .978 PDO, a substantial deviation from where we'd expect it to be.
More importantly, that downturn in output is contraindicated in the Kings' production metrics.
LA has out-chanced its opponents in quality opportunities in six of eight, averaging 10.3 chances along the way. Those metrics will eventually start to balance out, suggesting the floodgates should open for LA.
Secondly, and not surprisingly, the Kings have a tremendous track record at home.
Los Angeles has been outplayed at Crypto.com Arena just three times this season, resulting in a robust 57.4% expected goals-for rating on home ice.
Still, their actual rating of 52.8% is well below that, further supporting the Kings are progression candidates.
Red Wings vs. Kings
Betting Pick & Prediction
Given their recent string of bad luck, the chalky price on the Kings still isn't as high as we would expect it to be.
It won't be long before LA starts rebounding in the betting market, making Thursday's game against the Red Wings the ideal entry point for a lot of hockey bettors.
We're backing the home squad, expecting the Kings to leave with a well-deserved win. I think we've got plenty of value with Los Angeles at the current -190. I'd take it down to -225.
Pick: Los Angeles Kings (-190 at PointsBet)
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