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Sunday NHL Odds, Picks, Prediction: Ottawa Senators vs. Washington Capitals Betting Preview

Sunday NHL Odds, Picks, Prediction: Ottawa Senators vs. Washington Capitals Betting Preview article feature image
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Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images. Pictured: Ilya Samsanov

  • The Capitals are heavy favorites on Sunday afternoon against the Senators.
  • Washington has dominated this series of late and will look to break out of a bit of a funk against an opponent it should beat.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Senators vs. Capitals Odds

Senators Odds +195
Capitals Odds -240
Over/Under 6 (-115 / -105)
Time 12:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The Atlantic Division’s sixth-place Ottawa Senators hit the road to take on the Metropolitan Division’s fourth-place Washington Capitals. The Capitals have absolutely dominated this matchup, winning the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

Can Washington continue their dominance over Ottawa, or will the Sens finally break the streak?

Senators Struggling to Find Offense

The Ottawa Senators travel to Washington D.C. on the second half of a back-to-back following Saturday’s 2-0 loss to the Boston Bruins. This week has been a very busy one for Ottawa, as this will be its fifth game in seven days and the second set of back-to-backs in that stretch.

The Sens have been playing without their two primary goal-scorers, Drake Batherson and Josh Norris, who are both out with injuries. The impact of these two being out has been seen with Ottawa’s recent lack of scoring, as it has been shut out in two straight games.

Even when those two guys were healthy, Ottawa had difficulty creating scoring chances. Currently, the Sens rank 23rd in the league in 5-on-5 expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF) and 24th in average expected goal value of 5-on-5 shot attempts.

Somehow, the Senators’ defense has been even worse. They rank 29th in the league in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA).

Even though the Senators have allowed more than three goals just once in their past 13 games, I expect to finally see some regression to the mean as Washington’s offense has picked up over the past few weeks.

Anton Forsberg is slated to be today’s starter for Ottawa. Over his last eight starts, the Sens have gone just 2-6.

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Capitals Look to Get Back on Track

Washington returns home following its 5-2 win over the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday. It is no secret that the Capitals have been sliding over the past month, however, I think two straight statement wins over bottom-tier teams is exactly what that group needs.

While the Capitals have been sliding over the past month, their offense has not. Washington has scored four or more goals in four of their last five games.

I think two straight games against the Canadiens and Senators will fix help the blue line get their confidence back. While the Capitals’ defense/goaltending has allowed three or more goals in four of their last six games, I expect to see them regress back to the mean as their defensive grouping has been solid all year long.

This season, Washington ranks ninth in the league in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA). The Capitals allow just 2.76 goals per game this season, so facing an Ottawa team coming off two straight games of being shutout should be a great opportunity for the blue line to get back on track.

Senators-Capitals Pick

I think that, in a series where the Caps have won 10 straight meetings, we are getting a generous number on the puckline. I would not be shocked if the Sens are somewhat of a trendy dog today, as the Caps have not been playing their best while the Sens seem to play up to their competition well.

However, I think that there is just too much of a talent mismatch between these two teams, especially with two of Ottawa’s leading goal scorers out.

Pick: Washington -1.5 (+110 — Play to +100)

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