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NHL Odds, Expert Pick & Prediction: Senators vs. Devils (November 10)

NHL Odds, Expert Pick & Prediction: Senators vs. Devils (November 10) article feature image
Credit:

Derek Cain/Getty Images. Pictured: New Jersey devils center Michael McLeod

  • The surging New Jersey Devils host the sputtering Ottawa Senators on Thursday night.
  • The Devils have looked like one of the NHL's best teams this season while seemingly scoring goals at will.
  • That's one reason Tony Sartori is targeting a team total in this matchup, as he details below.

Senators vs. Devils Odds

Senators Odds +155
Devils Odds -180
Over/Under 6.5 (-110 / -110)
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV MSGSN2
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

We have an Eastern Conference tilt with the Metropolitan Division’s New Jersey Devils hosting the Atlantic Division’s Ottawa Senators on Thursday. These two clubs enter this contest in polar opposite form as the Sens have lost six straight games while the Devils have won seven in a row.

Will New Jersey take care of business once again, or can Ottawa pull off the road upset?

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Defensive Struggles for Ottawa Senators

It has been a tough stretch of hockey for the Sens lately, which is in large part due to poor defense and goaltending. At 5v5, they rank just 24th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).

This team features a thin blue line in terms of defensive talent, and the focus over the offseason was instead to revamp the offense.

Backing up this poor defense is goaltender Anton Forsberg, who is slated to start between the pipes on Thursday.

Through nine starts this season, he is 3-6 with a .898 SV% and 3.59 GAA. Entering this contest, opposing teams have scored four or more goals in each of Forsberg’s last four starts.

Among starting goaltenders, he ranks sixth last in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5v5.


Scoring Bonanza for New Jersey Devils

To begin the season, the New Jersey Devils look like one of the best teams in hockey. The primary driving force of their outstanding play this year is a deep offense that can score at any moment.

At 5v5, New Jersey ranks first in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). This team is loaded offensively with Jesper Bratt developing into a playmaking superstar, Nico Hischier living up to his captain status with consistently strong games, and Jack Hughes continuing to drive play at an extremely high level.

Defenseman Dougie Hamilton also is a key contributor on offense and is averaging just south of a point per game. Under coach Lindy Ruff, this team plays north as quickly as possible with the forwards typically breaking out from the defensive zone early while defensemen look to push the puck forward.

This “play north fast” mentality leads to a lot of rush offense, and subsequently more goals score. Entering this game, the Devils have scored four or more goals in five of their last seven contests.


Senators vs. Devils Pick

While New Jersey should win this game rather easily, there is too much juice on the moneyline at -180. Instead, there is much more value in backing the Devils team total to go over 3.5 at -125.

If you think the Devils are going to win this game, then it is likely that they score early and often because that is usually how they win games anyway. Add to the fact that they are facing a slumping Senators team with a struggling goaltender and poor defense, the Devils should have no problem scoring at least four times.

New Jersey has now scored four or more goals in five of the last eight meetings between these two teams.

Pick: Devils Team Total Over 3.5 (-125) | Play up to (-135)

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