NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Senators vs Islanders (Thursday, October 26)
Via Richard A. Whittaker/Getty Images. Pictured: Ottawa Senators Right Wing Vladimir Tarasenko (91) after a whistle during second period National Hockey League action between the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators on October 21, 2023, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada.
Senators vs Islanders Odds
| Senators Odds | +105 |
| Islanders Odds | -126 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +104 / -128 |
The Senators and Islanders have gotten off to similar starts. New York is 2-2-1 to Ottawa's 3-3-0 with both squads starting hot but now in the midst of a losing streak.
While these two might be evenly matched, we'll see polar opposite philosophies clash.
Find a betting prediction, preview and pick for Senators vs. Islanders on Thursday, October 26th, below.
Entering last season, Ottawa looked like a team with a stellar offense and questionable goaltending.
The Senators ultimately finished in the middle of the pack when it came to goals scored, which doomed their season, but that forward group has clicked this year.
Newcomer Vladimir Tarasenko has been a major part of the attack, providing three goals and eight points through six games, but he's not doing it alone. He's one of six Senators with at least three goals already — the others being Jake Sanderson, Josh Norris, Brady Tkachuk, Jakob Chychrun and Mathieu Joseph.
That's allowed the Senators to average a fantastic 4.17 goals per game, even without Shane Pinto, who is still holding out as a restricted free agent. Although the offense is finally living up to the hype, Ottawa's goaltending is just as subpar as feared.
Anton Forsberg has a 2-1-0 record with a 3.01 Goals Against Average (GAA) and an .873 save percentage. Joonas Korpisalo, who was brought in over the summer, hasn't been any better with a 1-2-0 record, 3.63 GAA and .872 save percentage.
The Senators' 5-on-5 Goals Against Above Expected stands at 2.63 — the seventh-highest number in the league — which emphasizes that this is more of a goaltending issue than a defensive one.
The silver lining is that the Islanders aren't well equipped to take advantage of the Senators' goaltending weakness, but that doesn't mean the Islanders will be an easy matchup for the Senators.
The Islanders are the Senators' mirror image. New York has averaged just 2.60 goals per game and isn't likely to do that much better offensively as the campaign progresses.
Sure, Bo Horvat should heat up relative to his start (two goals and three points in five contests), and Mathew Barzal, who has a goal and four points through five outings, is a solid top-line forward, but New York can't match Ottawa in terms of raw offensive skill.
Ottawa has seven different players averaging at least a point per game so far this season; the Islanders have just two such players.
However, the Islanders do feature goaltender Ilya Sorokin, though recently that hasn't been the positive it's supposed to be. Sorokin was the backbone of the Islanders' last campaign, posting a 31-22-7 record, 2.34 GAA and .924 save percentage in 62 contests.
However, he has a 3.00 GAA and a .900 save percentage in four contests this year after allowing 10 goals on 76 shots over his last two appearances. Slumps like that are bound to happen, even with good goaltenders, but Ottawa isn't a team you want to face cold.
At least that's true for most netminders. Sorokin does have a 1.95 GAA and a .936 save percentage in three career contests against Ottawa, so perhaps a visit from the Senators is exactly what he needs.
Senators vs. Islanders
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Islanders are short favorites, perhaps in deference to their position as the home squad. New York was a great home team last season (25-13-3) while Ottawa struggled on the road (15-21-5), so the home-ice advantage can't be dismissed as a determining factor, especially with how evenly matched these squads are.
I'm going to sidestep that bet, though, and instead recommend taking over 6.5 goals.
Typically, betting on a game involving the Islanders achieving the over is not a great idea, and the potential return is decent as a result. This potential payout has value because of Sorokin's recent struggles — true, he traditionally has done well against Ottawa, but it's a small sample size — combined with Ottawa's high-powered offense.
The Islanders might not feature many scoring threats, but scoring on the Senators hasn't been the hardest task in the world, so the ingredients are there for a high-scoring affair.
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