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Sharks vs. Flames NHL Odds, Pick, Preview (Dec. 7)

Sharks vs. Flames NHL Odds, Pick, Preview (Dec. 7) article feature image
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Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Erik Karlsson

Sharks vs. Flames Odds

Flames Odds -155
Sharks Odds +130
Over/Under 5.5o+105
Time 10:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The Calgary Flames conclude their four-game West Coast road trip on Tuesday against the San Jose Sharks. The Flames have earned a few extra air miles this trip, spending time in California, then heading to Vegas before returning to California for a date with the Sharks.

Calgary has to overcome more than just travel concerns when the puck drops in San Jose.

Regression Looms for Calgary

You wouldn’t know it by looking at their position in the standings, but the Flames have been one of the worst road teams in the league this season. Through 16 road games, the Flames have the 22nd-ranked expected goals-for rating, getting outplayed in 11 of 16 contests.

The most significant factor letting the Flames down over their recent outings is their questionable defensive zone coverage as the visitors. Calgary has allowed 11 or more high-danger chances at five-on-five in four of their past five road games. However, they’ve been bailed out by Jacob Markstrom, who continues to play lights-out hockey on the road.

Therein lies the disconnect between the Flames’ outcomes and prolonged success this season. Calgary continues to post negative relative metrics as the visitors this season but has been bailed out by timely scoring or above-average goaltending, neither of which are sustainable.

The Flames have the highest PDO on the road this season and are due for major correction after getting outplayed in most of their road games. Goals-for is well above expected, and goals-against is significantly lower. Calgary’s latest loss is a sign of things to come.


San Jose Sharks

The Sharks are trending in the right direction over their recent sample but don’t yet have the results to validate their performances. They are returning home after a moderately successful 3-2-0 road trip, but their recent game scores are analogous to a longer span; the Sharks metrics indicate they should have more wins than they actually do.

San Jose has been on a hot streak recently, posting expected goals-for ratings above 50.0% in eight of their past 10 games. Cumulatively, the Sharks have posted a 55.2% rating at five-on-five over that sample, getting out-chanced in scoring and high-danger chances just twice over that stretch.

However, over that 10-game sample, the Sharks have gone 5-5-0 with a 0.989 PDO. In reconciling the Sharks’ expected metrics with their actual outcomes, it’s clear that they are underachieving and are due for meaningful progression over their coming games.

Sharks vs. Flames Pick

The Flames have more wins on the road than they should this season, while the Sharks are deserving of more wins than they have. San Jose can use last change to their advantage to neutralize the Flames attack and get back in the win column on Tuesday.

Pick: Sharks +115 or better

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