NHL Odds, Prediction, Preview: Stars vs Capitals Pick (Thursday, December 7)

Thursday, Dec. 7

8 p.m. ET

ESPN

Stars Odds	-142
Capitals Odds	+120
Over / Under	6 -105 / -115

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Here's everything you need to know about Stars vs. Capitals on Thursday, Dec. 7 — our expert prediction and betting pick for today.

Dallas is one of the league's best teams, but it has shown some weakness recently, losing five of its past seven games. Additionally, the Stars will be tired Thursday night as they play their third road game in four days and second in as many nights.

We'll need to weigh those factors as we preview this contest and offer a Stars vs. Capitals prediction.

One obvious consequence of the schedule is journeyman goaltender Scott Wedgewood, who has a 3.18 GAA and a .911 save percentage in six contests this year, will get the nod over starter Jake Oettinger, who played Wednesday.

Dallas has been able to win games with Wedgewood in net, but that's largely thanks to its stellar offense, which ranks seventh with 3.42 goals per game. Will that offense be as effective Thursday? Well, there are two potential causes for concern. The first is Tyler Seguin, who left Wednesday's game due to an injury, and may not be available Thursday. The second is the aforementioned fatigue.

With regards to Seguin, Dallas will potentially be without a forward who has provided eight goals and 17 points in 24 contests. If he was playing for the Capitals, he'd be their scoring leader. Dallas has other options, though. Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Matt Duchene, Wyatt Johnston, Mason Marchment and Jamie Benn all have at least 17 points — which incidentally means that the Stars top-eight scorers are all ahead of Washington's top player. Losing Seguin hurts, but it's not a devastating setback.

What about fatigue? Between the 2022-'23 and 2023-'24 campaigns, Dallas has played 12 contests with no rest and has a 6-6-0 record while scoring 2.75 goals per game in those contests. The Stars improve to 3.55 goals per game when they've had one day of rest and 3.67 when they've had two. Given that this is also Dallas' third game in four days, it seems reasonable to believe this will be a difficult spot for the Stars.

If Dallas' forward core performs at its normal level, can Washington keep up? That's unlikely. Darcy Kuemper has left plenty to be desired this campaign with a 3.23 GAA and a .887 save percentage in 13 contests. He's also struggled recently, allowing 10 goals on 72 shots (.861 save percentage) over his past three outings.

Washington might respond to Kuemper's recent struggles by deploying backup Charlie Lindgren instead. Lindgren is 5-2-0 with a 2.46 GAA and a .928 save percentage in eight contests. At first glance, pivoting to Lindgren seems like the obvious solution, but he has been sliding with a 3.27 GAA and a .906 save percentage over his past three games.

However, the goaltending isn't the Capitals' biggest issue, the offense is. As noted above, eight Dallas players have more points this season than the Capitals scoring leaders, Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson (14 points each).

Washington ranks 31st with 2.27 goals per game this year. The Capitals xGF/60 is 2.38, so they've been a little unlucky, but not enough to make their offense look good. The Capitals aren't trending in the right direction either, scoring just nine goals over their past six contests.

Wedgewood isn't great, but he might be good enough to beat Washington.

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Dallas is the heavy favorite, which is understandable given the Capitals' poor offense and struggling goaltending. However, the potential payout from taking the Stars on the moneyline is too low for my tastes.

But do I really want to take Dallas on the puck line? Under normal circumstances, I would, but with the contest being in Washington and the combination of the Stars likely using their backup goaltender, being tired and working through a slump, I just can't bring myself to take that plunge.

Instead, I recommend betting Under 5.5 goals. Washington's offense is terrible and the Stars' offense tends to perform substantially worse in the second half of a back-to-back. This could plausibly result in a 3-2 Dallas victory.

Pick: Under 5.5 Goals +108 | Play to +100