NHL Odds, Pick & Prediction: Stars vs. Lightning (Tuesday, November 15)
Mark LoMoglio/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Brandon Hagel #38 of the Tampa Bay Lightning.
- The Tampa Bay Lightning host the Dallas Stars in Texas Tuesday night.
- The Lightning enter the matchup as favorites (-155 moneyline odds), but Tony Sartori sees value in betting a player prop.
- He explains why and gives his breakdown below.
Stars vs. Lightning Odds
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.|
Will the Lightning take care of business as a home favorite, or can the Stars pull off the upset on the road?
The Dallas Stars continue their east coast road trip following Sunday’s 5-1 victory over the Philadelphia Flyers. It has been a solid start to the season for Dallas, who are 9-5-1 and hold the second spot in the Central.
However, regression is likely going to hit this group sooner rather than later. At 5v5, they rank second in the league in goals for per 60 minutes (GF/60) but just 13th in xGF/60.
Additionally, at 5v5 they rank ninth in the league in goals against per 60 minutes (GA/60) but just 14th in xGA/60. Ranking in the top half of the league in both xGF/60 and xGA/60 is a tremendous spot to be in, which should not be shocking because the Stars have a great club.
That being said, they have been “outkicking their coverage” a tad with their current second GF/60 and ninth GA/60 5v5 rankings. Backing up this team is goaltender Jake Oettinger, who has once again been brilliant between the pipes this season.
There have been a couple of shaky starts for the Stars’ netminder recently. On October 29, he allowed two goals on 10 shots against the Rangers before getting pulled with a lower-body injury.
His next start did not come until November 11, when he allowed five goals on just 18 shots against the Sharks. Despite two incredibly shaky starts, he did look like his normal self in his most recent game against the Flyers on November 13 as he stopped 37 of 38 pucks in route to a win.
Tampa Bay Lightning
While the Stars’ metrics suggest that regression is looming, the opposite rings true for Tampa Bay’s offense. At 5v5 this season, they rank just 14th in the league in GF/60 but eighth in xGF/60.
Head coach Jon Cooper has made too many good decisions to count over the past three seasons as this club had a chance to three-peat in last year’s Stanley Cup Final. This season, his best decision thus far has been promoting winger Brandon Hagel to the first line to skate alongside superstars Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov.
This line has been an absolute problem for opposing teams, producing a 56 xGF% through 149 minutes. Hagel has made the most of his opportunity, logging at least one point in eight of his last 10 games.
It is true that you could plug anyone in alongside Point and Kucherov and they could put up points, however, Hagel has not just existed but rather is proactively making good plays around the net and producing results with smart, heads-up hockey. Additionally, Hagel has now posted six points over his last 10 games against the Stars.
Stars vs. Lightning Pick
This play is not an indictment on Dallas’ netminder, Jake Oettinger, by any means. Although he has had a couple of shaky starts recently, he looked right back in form against the Flyers on Sunday.
More than anything else, this play is a backing of the terrific Hagel-Point-Kucherov line. Books are still giving out relatively generous numbers on Hagel, which should continue to be attacked as he has played well alongside those two stars.
While Hagel has produced at 5v5, he also has been recently promoted to the first power play unit and skates alongside Point, Kucherov, Stamkos and Sergachev. That is a tremendous amount of firepower to play alongside, and Hagel should have no issue contributing to the offense in some capacity once again as long as Oettinger does not shut them out.
Pick: Brandon Hagel 1+ Assists (+150) | Play down to (+135)