Monday NHL Odds, Preview & Predictions: Wild vs. Avalanche (Jan. 17)
Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Gabriel Landeskog
- The Minnesota Wild and Colorado Avalanche meet on Monday afternoon at 3 p.m. ET for midday NHL action.
- The Avalanche opened as -167 favorites, but betting support has since driven up Colorado's moneyline between -215 and -245 across the betting market.
- However, as our NHL betting analyst details below, the moneyline is not the bet of choice in this matchup. Instead, look to the over/under.
Wild vs. Avalanche Odds
|Over/Under||6.5 (-115o / -105u)|
|Time||3 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.|
Few teams have been able to keep pace with the Colorado Avalanche this season. The Avs remain one of the best offensive teams in the league and have the receipts to back it up. They host a Minnesota Wild team that also has had recent success finding the back of the net, and this should lead to an entertaining afternoon contest on Martin Luther King Jr. day.
The Wild come into Monday’s affair well-rested. Minnesota had a pair of contests north of the border postponed last week, meaning this will be just their second game since January 8. That gave them some time to get their systems in order, as they have been one of the worst teams at five-on-five since the first week in December.
Minnesota has played 10 games since December 7th, posting negative relative metrics in most of those contests resulting in Expected Goals-For ratings below 50.0% in nine of 10 games. Their cumulative rating over their 10-game sample is 42.4%; however, they’ve been much more successful than their advanced metrics imply. The Wild have points in six of 10 games, going 5-4-1 over that stretch and posting a 1.012 PDO at five-on-five and 1.025 across all strengths.
That disconnect between metrics and outcomes puts the Wild on the precipice of regression, as they sit with the second-highest PDO at five-on-five and fifth-highest across all strengths. Minnesota cannot continue to get outplayed and win. That could start on Monday against an Avalanche team firing on all cylinders.
The Avs will be at full force when they host the Wild on Monday, as Gabriel Landeskog returned from his three-game absence against the Arizona Coyotes on Saturday night. This season, Landeskog has been one of the premier forwards in the NHL, leading the league in Expected Goals-For Rating across all strengths and recording 36 points in 27 games.
He resumed his spot on the Avs’ top line that remains one of the best in the league. Linemates Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen rank in the top 22 in Expected Goals-For Rating alongside Landeskog.
However, Colorado’s myriad scoring threats are what make them a dangerous opponent. The Avalanche have five players among the top 25 scorers in the league and 10 players with 15 or more points. As seen in their recent game scores, there’s no containing their offense as the Avs have scored three or more goals at five-on-five in seven straight games, scoring four or more across all strengths in 14 of their last 16 overall.
Their recent uptick in output can be substantiated with more robust production metrics. Colorado has attempted 10 or more High-Danger Chances at five-on-five in three of their previous five outings, attempting 13 or more across all strengths in four of six.
As good as they’ve been offensively, there’s still work to be done defensively, as Colorado has given up 13 or more High-Danger Chances in five of seven. The only time the Avalanche limited their opponents to fewer than 13 was against the hapless Coyotes over their past two contests.
Wild vs. Avalanche Pick
The Avs haven’t taken their foot off the goal-scoring pedal over their recent stretch, and we’re expecting no different from them Monday against the Wild. Still, Minnesota has put forward some solid offensive performances over their recent sample as well and should be able to take advantage of the Avs’ questionable defensive zone coverage.
Offense should be plentiful in this Central Division clash, and we’re taking the over 6.5 at -105.
Pick: Over 6.5 -105