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Flames vs. Oilers Game 4 Odds & Picks: Will the High Scoring Continue?

Flames vs. Oilers Game 4 Odds & Picks: Will the High Scoring Continue? article feature image
Credit:

Via Andy Devlin/Getty Images. Pictured: Evander Kane #91, Connor McDavid #97 and Cody Ceci #5 of the Edmonton Oilers.

  • The Oilers are short home favorites on Tuesday night against the Flames in Game 4.
  • Can the Oilers and their dominant top line take Game 4, or will the Flames knot up the series before heading back to Calgary?
  • Tony Sartori breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Flames vs. Oilers Odds

Flames Odds +100
Oilers Odds -120
Over/Under 6.5 (-105 / -115)
Time 9:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The Edmonton Oilers host the Calgary Flames in Game 4 on Tuesday night following Sunday’s 4-1 victory.

Two of the first three games of this series have seen seven or more total goals scored. Will we see another high-scoring affair between these two teams, or can the goaltending step up in a similar fashion to Game 3?

Can the Flames Overcome Markstrom’s Struggles?

The Calgary Flames enter this contest looking to even up the series following Sunday’s loss. This game is essentially a must-win for the Flames as a 3-1 series deficit would be an extremely difficult hill to climb against this Oilers team.

Averaging 4.33 goals scored per game in this series, Calgary’s offense will be heavily depended upon in Game 4. Generating High-Danger Scoring Chances has not been a problem for the Flames in these playoffs as they rank second among the remaining teams in five-on-five Expected Goals For (xGF) per 60 minutes.

Finishing on these High-Danger Scoring Chances has been where the problems have arisen for the Flames this postseason. However, the Oilers are a good matchup for that trend to reverse course as their defense is one of the worst remaining in the playoffs.

The shaky play of starting goaltender Jacob Markstrom means Calgary’s offense will have less margin for error. Over the first three games of this series, Markstrom possesses a troubling 0.853 save percentage.

Markstrom’s metrics are not any better as he possesses a game average of -0.45 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) over the first three games of this series.

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Will the Oilers’ Top Line Continue to Dominate?

The Edmonton Oilers will look to take a commanding 3-1 series lead before going back to Calgary for Game 5. Coach Jay Woodcroft made a change this series when he stacked Evander Kane/Leon Draisaitl/Connor McDavid on a single line in Game 1.

This change has been wildly successful as the Flames have had no answer for that line. Through the first three games, those three players have generated 23 combined points.

I mentioned in the preceding section that Calgary ranks second among the remaining playoff teams in five-on-five xGF per 60 minutes, which puts them just behind Edmonton. Ranking first in this metric, the Oilers have generated High-Danger Scoring Chances at will, which is mostly a product of how dominant that Kane/Draisaitl/McDavid line has been.

However, Edmonton’s blue line has struggled in these playoffs as they rank second-last among the remaining playoff teams in five-on-five Expected Goals Against (xGA) per 60 minutes.

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Flames vs. Oilers Pick

With two powerhouse offenses squaring off, I like the over to hit for the third time in four games. While the last game went under this total, Edmonton goaltender Mike Smith played out of his mind when he stopped 32 of 33 shots.

Smith has been incredibly inconsistent in these playoffs as he can have a shutout in one night and then a 0.700 save percentage the next. That being said, the Flames’ backs are against the wall, and if they are beaten in this game, I don’t believe it will be due to Mike Smith but rather the three-headed monster that the Oilers boast on the first line.

Pick: Over 6.5 (-105) | Play up to (-120)

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