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NHL Playoffs Game 4 Odds & Prediction: Maple Leafs vs. Lightning (May 8)

NHL Playoffs Game 4 Odds & Prediction: Maple Leafs vs. Lightning (May 8) article feature image

Eakin Howard/Getty Images. Pictured: Andrei Vasilevskiy

  • The Lightning host the Maple Leafs in a pivotal Game 4 on Sunday night.
  • Can Vasilevskiy and the Lightning bounce back again after a 5-2 loss in Game 3?
  • Jonny Lazarus breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Game 4 Odds

Maple Leafs Odds +105
Lightning Odds -125
Over/Under 6.5
Time 7 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

This game is all about the Tampa Bay Lightning’s ability to bounce back following a loss in the playoffs. Since 2020, Andrei Vasilevskiy is 15-0-0 with a 1.31 GAA, a .948 save percentage, and five shutouts following a loss.

This game is huge for the Toronto Maple Leafs as they can take a commanding 3-1 series lead heading back to home ice.

Toronto Maple Leafs Need To Continue Offensive Production

The Toronto Maple Leafs have been the third-best offensive team in the playoffs thus far, averaging 4.33 goals per game. Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews continue to be one of the best dynamic duos in the National Hockey League as they are both off to a hot start to this series.

Marner is leading the way for Toronto with two goals and four assists through the first three games, while he also has an incredible +6 rating. Matthews is right behind him with two goals and three assists along with a +4 rating. As good as they have been offensively, the Leafs’ Power Play has not performed as well as it did in the regular season.

Toronto had the top Power Play in the regular season, converting at a 27.3% rate. But through the first three games of the playoffs, they are only converting at 13.3% and are ranked 11th out of the 16 teams in the playoffs.

If the Leafs want to put the Lightning away in this series, they need their man-advantage unit to step up.

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Can Vasilevskiy Keep Up His Win Streak Following a Loss?

Andrei Vasilevskiy has been incredibly impressive with his back up against the wall in the past two years of the playoffs, and he is hoping to continue that trend tonight.

To keep this streak going, his team needs to have more consistent offensive production. The Lightning are only averaging 2.33 goals per game in this series, and that isn’t going to cut it against an offensively gifted Toronto Maple Leafs squad. That being said, their Power Play is starting to click after a horrible performance in Game 1, and the Lightning are doing a fine job at generating High-Danger Chances — they just need to convert.

There were some positives to take away in Game 3, despite losing by the score of 5-2. If we have learned anything from the Tampa Bay Lightning winning two Stanley Cups in a row, it’s that they never lose two games in a row. Campbell has been good for Toronto, but Vasilevskiy is still the best goalie in the world and should bounce back.

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Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Pick

The Maple Leafs offense does scare me a bit, but when the Lightning have their backs against the wall, they always seem to rise to the occasion, especially on home ice.

The Leafs know how important this game is for them in this series and how huge it would be to take a 3-1 lead back to Toronto. The pressure of that might get to them, and the Lightning have the experience in this situation to remain poised and play with some extra urgency.

I can’t seem to find the confidence to go against the Lightning when they have proved time and time again what they can do following a loss in the playoffs. I trust Vasilevskiy and the veteran Lightning to get the job done and tie this series up at two games apiece.

Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline -125

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