The Tampa Bay Lightning (6-4-2) and Colorado Avalanche (7-1-5) meet in an NHL inter-conference matchup tonight. Puck drop is set for 9:30 p.m. EST at Ball Arena in Denver, Colo. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Avalanche are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6 (-115o / -105u). The Avalanche are a -150 favorite to win outright, while the Lightning are +125 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Lightning vs. Avalanche predictions and NHL picks.
Lightning vs. Avalanche Odds, Pick
| Lightning Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 6 -115o / -105u | +125 |
| Avalanche Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 6 -115o / -105u | -150 |
- Lightning vs. Avalanche Puck Line: Lightning +1.5 (-200), Avalanche -1.5 (+165)
- Lightning vs. Avalanche Over/Under: 6 (-115o/ -105u)
- Lightning vs. Avalanche Moneyline: Lightning +125, Avalanche -150
Lightning vs. Avalanche Preview
Tampa Bay Lightning
Following Aleksander Barkov's season-ending injury, the Lightning entered the season as betting favorites to win the Atlantic Division and were priced at +1600 to win the Stanley Cup. With highly respected head coach Jon Cooper remaining in charge, all of the team's top stars from last year still on the roster, and improved overall depth, they seemed to be the safest bets in the NHL to coast into a playoff spot.
The Lightning got off to a surprisingly awful 1-4-2 start but have since stabilized by rattling off five consecutive victories. Due to their roster continuity and overall consistency during Cooper's tenure, they never profiled as a team worth worrying about seven games into the season.
During their five-game winning streak, the Lightning hold the highest expected goal share in the NHL (68.12%) and hold a +8 goal differential. They have found success with a new-look top six, featuring Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Brandon Hagel skating together on a stacked top unit, and Jake Guentzel and Anthony Cirelli on a second line, which has been highly effective.
Kucherov and Point have not yet been as productive as we are accustomed to seeing this season, but Guentzel and Cirelli have helped pick up the slack, leading the team with 12 and 11 points, respectively, though that is partly due to the fact that Kucherov missed two games due to illness.
While Kucherov, Point, and Hagel form a top line that is arguably on par with any other top unit in the league, the Lightning's second line, featuring an elite scorer in Guentzel and one of the game's best two-way forwards in Cirelli, offers a huge edge relative to the majority of teams, including the Avalanche.
Tampa Bay's bottom six was its biggest weakness relative to other contenders last season but should be considerably improved this season with full years from Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde, as well as likely development from Gage Goncalves, and the offseason signing of Pontus Holmberg.
Backup goaltender Jonas Johansson has started two of the last five games, including the Lightning's most recent matchup on Saturday, so it's a safe bet that number-one goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy will start this matchup, though he has not yet been confirmed at the time of writing.
Vasilevskiy has stabilized after a slow start, playing a .933 save percentage over his last three appearances. Vasilevskiy finished with a +29.2 GSAx rating in 63 games last season and is, at worst, a top-five goaltender in the NHL.
Colorado Avalanche
The majority of analysts and oddsmakers would agree in power-rating the Avalanche at either first or second in the NHL after their excellent 7-1-5 start to the season. Nathan MacKinnon is the current favorite to win the Hart Trophy, while Cale Makar is a heavy favorite to win a second consecutive Norris Trophy, which would already be the third of his spectacular young career.
While the Avalanche's overall depth still looks slightly concerning relative to other full-fledged Stanley Cup contenders on paper, all three of their defensive pairings have performed well so far this season, and head coach Jared Bednar's side has done an exceptional job in front of goaltenders Scott Wedgewood and Mackenzie Blackwood.
The Avalanche have allowed only 2.52 xGA/60 this season, which is the best mark in the NHL by a wide margin. They have allowed only 2.54 goals against per game where it counts, as Wedgewood has offered solid play in goal with a save percentage of .900 and +2.0 GSAx rating.
The level of defensive play offered by the entirety of the Avalanche lineup is quite noteworthy, as, given the dominance of the stars atop the lineup, the Avalanche will be a very formidable side this season if their bottom six and second and third defensive pairings can simply play even in matchups versus other contenders.
One surprising concern for the Avs this season has been the effectiveness of their top power play unit, which has succeeded on just 16.3% of opportunities. However, with two zone-entry machines in MacKinnon and Martin Necas, the league's best power play quarterback in Makar, and a strong net-front presence in Arturri Lehkonen, the top unit will likely start to offer better results sooner than later.
Lightning vs. Avalanche Prediction
It took some time for the Lightning to catch their stride this season, but during their five-game winning streak, they have looked like a Stanley Cup contender as expected. They still offer one of the best goaltenders in the league in Vasilevskiy and arguably the best top six in the NHL.
The Avalanche seem to be rightfully power-ranked top two entering this matchup, but I'm still not sold that they will blow a red-hot Lightning side out of the water. It's not unrealistic to feel that Tuesday's matchup could be a potential Stanley Cup preview, and we should see both teams bring strong efforts in this spot.
While the Avs have been the NHL's best defensive team so far this season, the Lightning also rank top five in most defensive metrics and should receive elite play in goal from Vasilevskiy. It seems unlikely that either team will create much separation on the scoreboard in this marquee matchup, which has me interested in betting the game to require overtime.
Five of Colorado's 13 games this season have gone past regulation, and in this particular spot I'm happy to bet into that trend considering the hefty price tag of +340.
Pick: Regulation Tie +340 (FanDuel, Play to +320)
