USA and Canada will write the latest chapter in their storied rivalry Thursday, as they face off in the Gold Medal game of the 2026 Winter Olympics. Puck drop is set for 1:10 p.m. EST at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. The game will be streamed live on Peacock.
USA is favored by 2.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (+105o/ -125u). USA is a -485 favorite to win outright, while Canada is +370 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my USA vs Canada predictions and Olympics picks.
USA vs Canada Odds, Pick
| Canada (W) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -135 | 5.5 +105o / -125u | +370 |
| USA (W) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 +114 | 5.5 +105o / -125u | -485 |
- USA vs. Canada Puck Line: USA -2.5 (+114), Canada +2.5 (-135)
- USA vs. Canada Over/Under: 5.5 (+105o / -125u)
- USA vs. Canada Moneyline: USA -485, Canada +370
USA vs. Canada Preview
USA
This game provides the opportunity for USA Hockey to prove that, without question, its women's program has surpassed its rivals to the north in recent years.
Team USA bested Canada 4-3 in overtime in the gold medal game of the 2025 World Championships before winning all four games of the 2025 rivalry series by a combined margin of 24-7. They then completely dismantled Canada 5-0 in the group stage of this tournament, in a game that closed in the -250 range, after opening around -150.
In the 2022 Olympics, Canada bested the USA 3-2 to claim the gold medal. Canada's consensus odds closed around -220 in that matchup. Suddenly the USA is priced at -500 to beat Canada in the gold medal game of the Olympics, something that felt borderline impossible just a few years ago.
There are a variety of reasons why Team USA is suddenly outperforming Canada so significantly, despite the fact that based on raw talent playing in the PWHL, it wouldn't necessarily be expected that these two programs would have grown so far apart.
Head coach John Wroblewski has his side playing a more modern style than his counterpart Troy Ryan. Led by Caroline Harvey, who is priced at -210 to win tournament MVP, Wroblewski has an extremely talented defensive core and implores them to jump up in the attack offensively.
As a whole, Team USA's defensive core does a great job of jumping up as an extra layer off the rush and is much more competent at helping to drive offense in sustained spells of offensive zone possession.
While they clearly drive offense more effectively than Canada's blue-liners, they also are strong at forcing dump-ins at the blue line and show strong mobility on retrievals and zone exits. Both of those strengths are compounded by the speed and defensive prowess of the forwards, who do a good job of backtracking through the middle of the ice.
Team USA has shown a much greater willingness to insert younger, more talented skaters to work into the program in recent years, with seven skaters currently playing in the NCAA. Those aren't just any skaters either, as they include Harvey, Laila Edwards, and Abbey Murphy, who are all highly impactful.
Canada may not have the same level of talent in the NCAA, but it did pass on options such as Chloe Primerano, who quite reasonably may have been a significant upgrade on some of the rostered defenders.
Canada will strive to make this game into a grimy, tight-checking affair and look to avoid being caught out in transition. Those were consistent themes in the rivalry series and USA's 5-0 win in the group stage, and with the group Canada brought, it seems unreasonable for it to believe it can hang around if this game becomes somewhat of a track meet.
Canada does not have the same kind of dynamic offensive talent as Team USA, and if the Americans can manage the puck effectively and avoid turnovers in key areas, Canada's stale offensive process could prove to be quite concerning. Throughout the four rivalry series matchups in late 2025 and the group stage matchup, Canada has averaged just 1.4 goals per game versus Team USA.
In the tournament, USA has conceded just one goal across six games and allowed an average of just 15.8 shots on goal per game. While they play a high-upside modern game, it's been extremely rare that they are caught out of position, and they have the speed to close plays off the odd time that things do go astray.
Aerin Frankiel has played to a .946 save percentage in the PWHL this season, which ranks second among goaltenders to make over three starts. She enters off a 21-save shutout versus Sweden and holds a .985 save percentage in the tournament.
Canada
Anything can happen in a do-or-die hockey game. Variance and puck luck are extremely real, and as we saw from Czechia in the men's bracket Wednesday playing as +800 underdogs, any team is in with a shot given strong play in goal, and potentially a lucky bounce or two (like Lukas Sedlak's opening tally for Czechia).
But what's interesting is that we are at the point where it feels like things need to break just right for Ryan's Canadian side in order for them to compete in this matchup.
They will likely need to make next to no egregious mistakes, be opportunistic on their scoring chances and with the man advantage, and receive an excellent performance from Ann-Renee Desbiens in goal in order to win this matchup.
Canada has outscored opponents 21 to eight in the tournament and outshot opponents 221 to 94. They have scored on 9.5% of shots taken, but that mark comes down significantly looking at the game versus the USA and the semi-final matchup versus Switzerland and its high-quality netminder Andrea Brandli, who is more on par with Aerin Frankiel than the goaltenders of other teams.
Regardless of which tactical approach or roster decisions were made, Canada would have been a gigantic favorite to make it to this gold medal game. The reality is other nations just aren't quite there in the women's game with the USA and Canada.
The fact that Canada would always be likely to dominate every other team aside from the USA in this tournament is likely saving Ryan from receiving the level of criticism he would be receiving if there were numerous teams with the level of talent Canada is offering in this tournament. He doesn't seem to make many in-game adjustments, and he's been stubborn with his personnel usage in this tournament.
Ryan and the rest of the Hockey Canada's brass associated with selecting the roster are also likely to be under heavy fire if the team can't come together and win this matchup. They passed on numerous quality young talents in order to keep the core that won at the 2022 Olympics intact.
Veteran skaters such as Blayre Turnbull, Sarah Nurse, and Emily Clark have seemingly gotten a free pass to play heavy minutes regardless of the form displayed in this tournament. There's been a reluctance to reassess which skaters are currently playing the best and award those skaters greater roles.
Canada has often struggled to create the types of shots that are actually likely to lead to goals at a high rate. Their offensive tactics have worked well enough in matchups where they were always likely to entirely dominate possession, but they have still struggled to really open teams up with dynamic play in transition and off of the rush.
They left some high-upside skaters at home and have been reluctant to pivot to the ones who have looked more threatening in the tournament.
My best bet for Canada's semi-final matchup was Switzerland +4.5 goals parlayed with under 6.5. My belief was that Canada's overall offensive process was not that impressive and that it was likely Brandlii could handle most of the looks that came her way. While Canada outshot Switzerland 46-8 and could have easily won 3-1 or 4-1, the game still went the way we targeted with our handicap as Canada's lack of dynamic offensive play shined through.
Ailing captain, and arguably the greatest women's player ever, Marie-Philip Poulin came up clutch with two goals. One being a flubbed one-timer and one coming off a rebound out front. Poulin deserves a ton of credit for her performance, but it's also a concern that nobody else on the team could contribute against a Swiss side that was not overly formidable.
Goaltender Ann-Renee Desbiens holds a .954 save percentage in the PWHL this season, which is the best mark in the league among goaltenders to make over three starts. She has struggled versus the USA recently, including being pulled after two periods in the group stage matchup, but those struggles have mainly come down to how badly her team has fared defensively.
If Canada is able to limit the USA more so the types of shots she has a realistic chance of saving, expect her play to be a big story in this matchup.
USA vs. Canada Prediction
It seems reasonable to believe that Canada's veteran laden group can tighten things up and author a better defensive performance than we saw in their group stage matchup versus USA, but it is tough to imagine a strong offensive output barring some favourable bounces out front and clinical work with the man advantage.
Powerplays may prove tough to come by too, as both teams will likely be quite disciplined in this matchup and the refs likely will not call borderline infractions.
DraftKings is offering +105 for Canada to score less than 1.5 goals, which is my favourite available bet on the game. bet365 is offering +100 for USA to win in regulation parlayed with Canada team total under 1.5, which is a playable pivot for bettors without access to DraftKings.
Pick: Canada Team Total Under 1.5 Total Goals +105 (DraftKings, Play to -110)
