2020 North Dakota Democratic Caucus Odds & Projections: Joe Biden Has Edge in Betting Market
Photo credit: Daniel Carde/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden
- Betting markets give former vice president Joe Biden a slight edge to win the North Dakota Democratic Caucus with -227 odds (64% implied probability).
- According to the odds, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders still has about a one-in-three chance to win at +163 (35.1% implied probability).
- With only 14 pledged delegates, North Dakota has the fewest of the six states voting on Tuesday and is tied for the fewest of the 50 states.
The 2020 Democratic Primary marches on with six more states casting their votes on Tuesday: Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington.
Between those six states, there are 352 delegates up for grabs, or 8.8% of the 3,979 total. North Dakota has the fewest of the group at 14, which is also tied with Wyoming for the fewest in the country.
Like Democratic primaries in other states, there’s a 15% vote threshold for a candidate to receive delegates in North Dakota’s open caucus. So, for example, if Joe Biden is the only candidate to get 15% or more of the votes, he will get all of the state’s delegates. If two candidates both receive above 15%, the delegates are divided according to vote share.
Coming off a bevy of Super Tuesday wins, former vice president Biden leads the field in overall delegates (664) as well as the popular vote.
Biden is favored to secure a majority of the 14 delegates according to European sportsbook Betfair, which gives him -227 odds to win — that means you’d have to bet $227 to win $100 with a Biden victory.
Biden’s juice-free implied probability of winning (64%) aligns with FiveThirtyEight’s model, which gives him a 65% chance to win the most votes in North Dakota. Bernie Sanders’ +163 odds imply a 35.1% vig-free probability of winning, which also closely aligns to FiveThirtyEight (36% chance). They’re forecasting Biden to win an average of eight pledged delegates and Sanders to win an average of six.
You’ll find the full North Dakota caucus odds via Betfair below. Implied probabilities have the juice removed.
2020 North Dakota Democratic Caucus Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -227 means that if you bet $227 on Joe Biden, you’d profit $100 if he wins.
- Joe Biden: -227, 64% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +163, 35.1% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.9% implied probability