Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chile forward Alexis Sanchez (7).
- Chile and Japan (June 17 at 7 p.m. ET) close out the opening slate of group matches at the 2019 Copa America.
- There's been notable betting activity for each match this weekend and we've analyzed where all the sharp and public wagers are going.
The 2019 Copa America gets underway Friday and hosts Brazil have received a ton of betting support as heavy favorites against Bolivia.
On paper, Argentina-Colombia is probably the best opening group game of the weekend, but every matchup presents an intriguing betting angle.
Brazil vs. Bolivia (Friday, June 14 at 8:30 p.m. ET)
- Group A
- Brazil Odds: -3300
- Bolivia Odds: +4100
- Draw: +1250
- Over/Under: 3.5 (o-113)
Brazil have increased all the way from -1000 to -3300 against Bolivia despite Neymar being out, so maybe bettors think they’ll be better off without him. They do have home-field advantage and were already favored by -2.5 on the goal line, but the moneyline increase seems excessive.
The goal line (spread) has also shifted from Brazil -2.5 to Brazil -3, and that’s likely the more popular wager type for this particular match.
In the totals market, the over has been getting steamed considerably over the last week and increased from 3 to 3.5. It’s clear that both sharp and public bettors anticipate a blowout in the first match of the tournament so a Brazil win of 3-0 or 4-0 should be expected.
Venezuela vs. Peru (Saturday, June 15 at 3 p.m. ET)
- Group A
- Venezuela Odds: +210
- Peru Odds: +160
- Draw: +200
- Over/Under: 2.5 (u-125)
Since odds opened there’s been a big adjustment toward Venezuela (from +250 to +200) despite the majority of public bettors backing Peru.
On the other side, Peru’s odds have increased from +130 to +160, which isn’t a great sign since they’ve attracted nearly 60% of wagers. Although I’ve already backed Peru to win the tournament, I’m definitely worried about the betting market for their first group match against Venezuela.
Argentina vs. Colombia (Saturday, June 15 at 6 p.m. ET)
- Group B
- Argentina Odds: +125
- Colombia Odds: +255
- Draw: +215
- Over/Under: 2.5 (u-130)
Argentina-Colombia is the most compelling opening group match at the 2019 Copa America and you may be surprised to find out smart money is coming in on Colombia to get a result.
Despite receiving nearly 60% of moneyline bets, Argentina have drifted from +105 to +125, indicating sharp wagers have taken Colombia and the draw. There’s also been movement toward the under (2.5) and some sportsbooks around the market have even dropped down to 2.
This game will likely attract the most betting slips of the weekend so there’s a decent chance that odds will shift even more.
Paraguay vs. Qatar (Sunday, June 16 at 3 p.m. ET)
- Group B
- Paraguay Odds: -135
- Qatar Odds: +475
- Draw: +250
- Over/Under: 2 (u-115)
Qatar are actually getting some love against Paraguay as big underdogs and have improved from +600 to +475. Bettors are also taking a shot on the Qatar goal line of +1 or +0.5.
Sharp over/under wagers are again on the under (2) and sportsbooks have adjusted the juice from -105 to -115.
Uruguay vs. Ecuador (Sunday, June 16 at 6 p.m. ET)
- Group C
- Uruguay Odds: -135
- Ecuador Odds: +475
- Draw: +230
- Over/Under: 2 (o-115)
In opening Group C action, Uruguay are -135 favorites to beat Ecuador and lines haven’t budged much. The vast majority of bets has come in on Uruguay but sportsbooks aren’t worried yet, so that could be a sign that sharp money on Ecuador is coming.
I do think Ecuador is a sneaky good pick to win/advance from the group and I’m interested in betting their goal line of +0.5 (+120) against Uruguay as they’ll need a positive result to get the tournament started.
Chile vs. Japan (Monday, June 17 at 7 p.m. ET)
- Group C
- Chile Odds: -240
- Japan Odds: +725
- Draw: +350
- Over/Under: 2.5 (u-150)
All the line movement in this match has gone toward Chile earning the victory as they’ve increased from -205 to -240. Betting percentage data is still incomplete at the moment since the match is still three days away, but don’t be surprised to see >70% of bets on Chile when the game kicks off.
At plus-money odds, I love the value on the over (2.5) and think this has the potential to be a 2-1 or 3-1 final.