2022 World Cup Champion Projections: What Do Numbers Tell Us About Title Hopes?

2022 World Cup Champion Projections: What Do Numbers Tell Us About Title Hopes? article feature image


Kirill Kudryavtsev/Getty. Pictured: World Cup Trophy Replica.

Ahead of the 2022 World Cup, Nick Giffen of the Action Network's Predictive Analytics team ran projections on each country's chances of reaching each stage at the tournament.

The projections revealed some interesting notions, but we'll start at the top of the list, where the title favorites can be found.

According to the projections, Brazil are slight favorites to win the tournament at a +466 implied price. England and Spain are close behind at +500 and +523.

The trio are followed by France, the defending champions, at +823 and Portugal at +1105. Argentina, the current second favorite, comes in at +1899.

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If you're wondering what kind of chance the projections give the United States or their CONCACAF peers, the answer is not very kind.

Gregg Berhalter's team is listed at a 1.06% chance to win the event, offering implied odds of +9298. Those are better than the listed odds of +15000, but still aren't a glowing portrait of the US' hopes.

Nonetheless, these projections do indicate marginal value on the Stars and Stripes.

For Mexico, it's even worse as the projections indicate a 0.67% chance at the title, or an implied odds correlation of +14848.

With regard to the team making its first World Cup appearance since 1986, Canada, there is even less hope, despite a CONCACAF group topping performance in the qualifying stage.

Full projections compared to actual Bet365 odds can be found below.

World Cup Champion Projections

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