Napoli vs AC Milan Odds, Pick, Prediction | Champions League

Napoli vs AC Milan Odds, Pick, Prediction | Champions League article feature image
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  • AC Milan host Serie A-leading Napoli in the Champions League quarterfinals today.
  • Milan beat Napoli 4-0 in the league earlier this month, but the stakes are higher here.
  • BJ Cunningham previews the game and makes his Napoli vs. AC Milan pick below.

Napoli vs AC Milan Odds

Wed, Apr. 12
3 p.m. ET
Paramount+

Napoli Odds

+190

AC Milan Odds

+170
Draw+200
Over/Under2.5 (+148 / -182)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(+104 / -130)
Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Two Italian clubs meet in the quarterfinals of the Champions League as we make a pick for Napoli vs. AC Milan.

Milan downed Tottenham in the round of 16 fairly comfortably to get to this point where they face off with one of their domestic rivals. They recently beat Napoli 4-0 on the road on April 2nd, although the match did not mean much to Napoli considering they already have the Serie A title wrapped up. We'll see if they can repeat that stellar performance.

Napoli have been one of the best teams in Europe this season and have cruised to both the Serie A title and the Champions League quarterfinals. They dismantled both Liverpool and Ajax in the group stage and then took care of business against Frankfurt in the round of 16. Napoli are dealing with some injury issues at the moment, so we'll see if that plagues them in the first leg.

Napoli Dominating Weak Competition

Napoli are running away with the Serie A title and they have the underlying metrics to back it up. Napoli have a +0.96 xGD mark per 90 minutes and a lot of that is because they've beat up on lesser competition. Against the bottom half of the Serie A table, Napoli have a +22.6 xGD in 16 matches. However, against the top half of the Serie A table, they only have a +5.4 xGD in 13 matches.

The concerning thing for Napoli is their midfield performance last time around against Milan. Napoli's midfielders won just 5-of-21 ground duels in the middle of the pitch.

Another issue was Napoli's defending in wide areas. When Napoli are out of possession, they’re typically in a 4-4-2 shape, which puts a premium on not allowing teams to play through the middle. Brahim Diaz was sensational in that game and his individual skill led to the first goal. Time and time again during that match, Milan torched Napoli in wide areas, especially with Theo Hernandez, who is vitally important to Milan’s attack up the left side.

So, can Napoli overcome the loss of Victor Osimhen and get a first leg result, or will we have a repeat of what happened 10 days ago?

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AC Milan Have the Tactics For Damage

AC Milan are coming off a 4-0 drubbing of Napoli on the road in Serie A and normally I would say the match didn’t matter to Napoli, as they have the title wrapped up. However, if we go back to September 18th when AC Milan hosted Napoli, they absolutely demolished them and were unlucky to lose 2-1. 

Milan did well with man to man marking in the middle of the pitch and pressing Napoli to disrupt their build up play. Napoli are one of the best build up possession teams in the world, so disrupting that is a very tall task. For the season in Serie A, AC Milan are a good pressing team – ranking second in PPDA and fourth in opponent build up completion percentage allowed – so it was no fluke that they were able to disrupt Napoli's build up.

AC Milan went through a really difficult point in the middle of their season where they got dismantled by Inter in the Supercoppa, lost to Lazio 4-0, lost to Sassuolo 5-2 and then lost against to Inter 1-0, but Theo Hernandez didn’t play in any of those matches. Since he’s returned, the AC Milan attack has been revitalized, averaging 1.69 xG per match in their last 10 matches.

Napoli vs AC Milan Pick

You can make the argument that Napoli weren't taking the match 10 days ago against AC Milan seriously because they didn't want to show anything having already wrapped up the Serie A title.

With that being said, AC Milan showed how good they are at disrupting Napoli's build up play, and the tactical display that they showed should be very worrying for Napoli.

I have AC Milan projected as a slight favorite at home, and I like the value on their draw no bet line.

Pick: AC Milan – Draw No Bet (-116)

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