Arsenal vs Man United Odds, Pick, Predictions | Premier League Preview

Sunday, Sept. 3

11:30 a.m. ET

NBC

Arsenal Odds	-134
Man United Odds	+350
Draw	+280
Total (Over / Under)	2.5  (-175 / +137)

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Two longtime rivals meet in North London in what should be the match of the weekend as we get Arsenal vs Man United.

Arsenal were stunned late at the Emirates last weekend when a 10-man Fulham scored off a set piece to draw 2-2. The Gunners have been good to begin the season, but they need to win matches like this at home against a fellow big six side if they want to challenge Man City for the title.

Man United have been a rollercoaster to begin the season. They fell behind 2-0 against Nottingham Forest inside the first 10 minutes and need a massive performance to come back and eventually win 3-2. The defense has been shambolic and now they have to deal with injuries across their backline, so this isn't the best of situations for United.

Here is my Arsenal vs Man United pick.

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Arsenal have been good but not great to begin the season. They got caught on the wrong side of some variance in the match against Fulham, creating well over 3 xG and Fulham scoring their two goals off of 0.6 xG. 

They have shown some cracks in their defense, but it’s not time at all to overreact. They’ve conceded 2.8 xG through three matches and only City have been better defensively. William Saliba and Ben White are looking like a fine partnership at the back, but I wonder if we will see Gabriel for this match to give Arsenal more solidity in their backline. 

The Gunners destroyed Manchester United at the Emirates last season 3-2, outshot them 25 to 6 and box entries were 28 to 5. United were without Casemiro so they ended up playing incredibly direct and they hit on on some of those direct counter-attacking opportunities with Rashford from outside the box and then Lisandro Martinez scored off of a goalkeeping error on a set piece.

Gabriel Jesus being healthy is also a big difference maker for Arsenal, as they'll be getting their best striker back with Eddie Nketiah now injured.

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Manchester United have a ton of injuries to deal with at the moment. Luke Shaw, Raphael Varane, Tyrell Malacia and Mason Mount are all confirmed out for this match and Rasmus Hojland is questionable. So, that means it's going to be Viktor Lindelof along the back line.

Varane is a big loss for Manchester United because he is an elite defender at stopping transitional opportunities and is good in 1-on-1 situations.

Manchester United are playing an incredibly risky high-pressing style this season, trying to become an elite pressing side. They have forced 41 high turnovers through three matches, which is the most in the Premier League.

United have struggled time and time again against teams who will man-mark press them. If you look back to last season and how they fared against teams like Manchester City, Newcastle, Arsenal and Brighton, they got crushed in most of those matches.

United were pretty good in the first 45 minutes against Tottenham, another man mark pressing team, but Spurs eventually broke through and dominated the second half. Burnley are another team that man mark presses and they beat Manchester United 3-0 in a behind-closed-doors friendly less than two weeks ago. Arsenal are going to man mark press them and Manchester United are either going to have to play very direct or they’re going to struggle in the build-up phase.

Manchester United have also been incredibly poor away from home against decent competition. Dating back to last season, United have picked up just two points away from home against the top nine and have a -11.4 xGD in those 10 matches.

I have Arsenal projected at -117, but with all of the injuries to United, I think Arsenal are much more suited to exploit a lot of their weaknesses.

Pick: Arsenal ML (-134)