Aston Villa vs Brighton Odds, Picks, Predictions | Premier League Preview

Saturday, Sep. 30

7:30 a.m. ET

USA Network

Aston Villa Odds	+155
Brighton Odds	+155
Draw	+275
Over / Under	2.5  -225 / +175

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Aston Villa look for their fifth win in their last six Premier League matches when they take on Brighton to kick off the weekend of Premier League action.

Villa have been in good form in the Premier League, but everywhere else it's been a disaster. They lost this week in the League Cup to Everton and last week lost their opening Europa Conference League match to Legia Warsaw. With the matches piling up and the amount of injuries Unai Emery is dealing with, he doesn't really have many options in terms of rotating the squad, so there will be some tired legs coming into Saturday.

Brighton have played one bad game in the Premier League, but other than that one they've been destroying teams. They went down early to Bournemouth in their last match and ended up beating them 3-1 in another great offensive performance. The Seagulls look like contenders to challenge for the top four and three points at Villa Park could go a long way in achieving that.

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This is another situation where Aston Villa will be going up against an elite pressing team and will try to build out of the back. When they played Liverpool and Newcastle they got destroyed trying to build out of the back and consistently kept turning the ball over in their own third, leading to a ton of big scoring chances, as they conceded seven in those two matches.

They did get a 1-0 win over Chelsea, but before the Gusto red card in the 58th minutes they had created 0.24 xG. Even though Chelsea only created 1.3 xG they were constantly playing through balls against Villa’s incredibly aggressive high line.

If they play that high of a line against guys like Evan Ferguson, Kaoru Mitoma, and Solly March they are going to get ripped apart. What Unai Emery does out of possession is he won’t press, but rather he will allow teams to build out of the back, condensing space beyond.

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Brighton have been in weird form. Similar to Aston Villa they lost their opening Europa League match to AEK Athens at home and then also lost in the League Cup 1-0 to Chelsea on Wednesday.

However, Brighton are once against one of the best offenses in the Premier League and have crazy attacking depth to break down any defense.

They played a heavily rotated squad against Bournemouth last Sunday and then brought Mitoma on at half time to see him score two goals and completely put the game away.

Brighton are one of the most tactically diverse sides in the entire world under Roberto De Zerbi. They can be successful against any opponent no matter how they set up. Typically the Seagulls like to bait teams into pressing their center backs and also bring a third midfielder in centrally to create an overload, so they have a passing option once the opponent eventually decides to press. From there they move the ball so quickly forward, almost creating a transition opportunity to try and catch the defense out of position.

The thing is, teams know this now, so no longer are they trying to press Brighton high to give that space in behind the first line of pressure. Instead, a lot of teams have been trying to play compact low blocks against them and holding onto dear life for all 90 minutes. Compact low blocks are great, but Brighton's attackers are so versatile that they will just create overloads in wide areas to allow their wingers like Mitoma to get in 1 v 1 situation or have them be able to send in an unimpeded cross to the box.

De Zerbi's attackers are also very well versed in making runs in behind the opponent's back line, which is what they will be doing in this match. The pace that Ferguson, Pedro, Mitoma and March possess will allow the Seagulls to do exactly what Chelsea did to Villa last weekend, except Brighton actually have forwards who can finish.

If Aston Villa are going to try and build out of the back like they usually do, Brighton are going to consistently turn them over in their own end time and time against. The Seagulls are third in PPDA, second in opponent build up completion percentage allowed and fifth in progressive passes + dribbles allowed.

Aston Villa's high line isn't going to work because Brighton are going to consistently make runs in behind with their pace and create so many chances. That means Villa will have to sit in a low block, and if you are not an elite low block team that is comfortable sitting in for a majority of the match, Brighton will destroy you. The Seagulls have created the second-most non-penalty expected goals, big scoring chances and have the second-best final third to box entry conversion rate, just showing how effective they are at overloading the last line of defense and breaking down low blocks. 

I have Brighton projected as a road favorite, so I like the value on them draw no bet at -103.

Pick: Brighton – Draw No Bet (-103 via bet365)