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Aston Villa vs. Chelsea Betting Preview: How to Bet the Goal Total

Aston Villa vs. Chelsea Betting Preview: How to Bet the Goal Total article feature image
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Charlotte Wilson/Offside/Offside via Getty Images. Pictured: Raheem Sterling of Chelsea.

  • Chelsea and Aston Villa face off in the Premier League Sunday.
  • Ian Quillen believes there's a prop market which offers the best value available.
  • Read on for his best bet and analysis for today's clash.

Aston Villa vs. Chelsea Odds

Aston Villa Odds +310
Chelsea Odds +100
Draw +235
Over/Under 2.5 (+115 / -145)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
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Chelsea look to continue their exceptional October under new boss Graham Potter in Sunday’s visit to Aston Villa.

The Blues are perfect in four competitive matches since the start of the month. They beat AC Milan twice in the Champions League by a combined 5-0 margin, and in the league won away to Crystal Palace and home against Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Meanwhile, Villa boss Steven Gerrard is seeing his popularity plummet amid middling results. The Villains have won only once in their last six and most recently were held to a 1-1 draw at last-place Nottingham Forest on Monday.

Chelsea won both league meetings last season. They also advanced past Villa in the third round of the League Cup on penalties following a 1-1 draw.

Aston Villa Offense Needs a Boost

Villa haven’t necessarily been bad in Gerrard’s first full season at the helm. Just exceptionally underwhelming.

An overhauled roster that was expected to bring a higher level of play and a challenge for European places simply hasn’t done so. Villa have scored multiple goals in only one league game — a 2-1 victory over Everton — and they’ve created fewer than 1.0 xG in five of their last six matches.

The lone exception was a 0-0 draw at Leeds in which Villa played the final 42 minutes up a man.

Villa do not have a single player with more than one goal to his name. Ollie Watkins’ 2.1 xG in terms of chances taken is the highest on the team.

Chelsea Struggles in Away League Fixtures

The improvement under Potter so far is obvious, but we still don’t have much in the way of information about what we can expect from his side in away league fixtures.

He’s only managed in one, and that was a London Derby, which brings its own unique elements. And yes, the Blues pulled off a 2-0 midweek win at AC Milan in the Champions League, but Milan handed them the keys with Fikayo Tomori’s 18th-minute dismissal.

Before his arrival, Chelsea were frustrated by their away form. They lost at Leeds, Southampton and eventually Dynamo Zagreb in the match that ultimately got Thomas Tuchel fired. Their lone win over Everton on the opening weekend came via a fortunate (if correctly awarded) penalty.

What we’ve seen so far from Potter’s version of Chelsea gives us little reason to expect that will continue. But it’s worth remembering there’s still uncertainty there, in a spot where their opponent may feel backed into a corner and therefore unusually dangerous.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Like most Chelsea games this season, this feels like a contest that will have enough quality to see a couple of goals scored, but is unlikely to turn into a shootout.

As such, I’m playing the multi-goal wager of two or three goals to be scored at even money or +100 odds.

It’s a wager that has paid out in six of Chelsea’s eight league matches and five of Villa’s nine, and also looks wise when you look at the visitors’ game-by-game xG totals.

Every single competitive match Chelsea has played — 12 in total — has seen teams combine create between 1.6 and 3.6 xG.

That analytical trend doesn’t surface in Villa’s matches. But as the superior squad, you’d expect Chelsea to control the terms of how this match is played.

The Pick: Multi-goal, 2-3 goals (+100)

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