Atletico Madrid vs Celtic Prediction | Champions League Match Preview
Javier Soriano/Getty. Pictured: Angel Correa.
Atletico Madrid vs Celtic Odds
| Atletico Madrid Odds | -275 |
| Celtic Odds | +650 |
| Draw | +425 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -167 / +130 |
After a draw in the first leg in Glasgow, both Celtic and Atletico Madrid are desperate for points as the venue shifts to Madrid.
Celtic are in flying form in the Scottish Premier League, winning eight of their last nine matches and holding a comfortable lead at the top of the table, ahead of their inner-city rival, Rangers. In the Champions League, however, they only have one point through three matches and need to make up ground in a hurry. They weren't that bad in the first leg at home, so that does give them some hope of getting a result here on the road.
Diego Simone's team was finally beaten by Las Palmas last Friday, ending an eight match unbeaten streak and a six match winning streak in La Liga. Simeone has changed his tactics this season to play more expansive attacking football, opposed to the normal 4-4-2 low block we've seen since he arrived in the Spanish capital. Atletico are trailing Feyenoord by one point for the top spot in the group, so it's crucial they get all three points here at home.
Here is my Atletico Madrid vs Celticprediction.
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Atletico Madrid
This is not the Diego Simone you once knew. No longer are Atletico a passive 4-4-2 low block and one of the best defensive sides in all of Europe. No, they are now an offensive force. After Atletico drew 1-1 with Real Madrid on February 25th of last season, he switched the formation to a 5-3-2. While on the surface that looks like an even more defensive formation, it's actually a much more offensive-minded approach. Since Simone changed them to that formation, Atletico are averaging an absurd 2.13 xG per 90 minutes.
So, how are they doing it?
Well, the 5-3-2 allows them to do two things offensively. The first one is to create overloads in wide areas. This allows Atletico to either send in a cross or enter the box via the wide area for a cutback shot. It also pulls the opposing defensive block out wide, which creates a ton of space at the back of the post for crosses.
The second thing they like to do is use counter-movements, which is when an attacker makes an opposite movement from the ball, dragging a defender with him to free up space for an attacker to occupy the free space and eventually create a chance.
Alvaro Morata is one of the most intelligent tactically minded strikers on the planet. He gets a lot of flack for his poor finishing, but he is elite at doing this and is another reason why Antoine Griezmann has flourished in this new system.
When Atletico are out of possession, they have been much more aggressive pressing and trying to disrupt build-up play in their own final third. Once they win the ball, they try to get forward in a hurry to counterattack the opposing defense when they are out of position. However, if they aren't as effective with their pressing, they can get exposed through the central parts of the pitch.
Celtic
Brenden Rodgers has continued what Ange Postecoglu built at Celtic, continuing the possession-based, free-flowing football that allowed them to win the Scottish Premier League title the last two seasons.
He wants his teams to build out of the back with slow progressive possession up the pitch, which has worked in the Scottish Premier League. In the Champions League, against good out of possession sides, they need to play more direct. It's why they struggled to create chances against Feyenoord in the opening match. But given how poor Atletico Madrid were pressing them out of possession in Glasgow, it does give Celtic hope of getting a result on the road.
Celtic have been more selective with their out of possession pressing, playing more of a passive mid-block as opposed to the all out high line press we saw under Postecoglu. Celtic were actually excellent out of possession in the first leg. Outside of the penalty and Morata header for the second goal, Atletico Madrid only registered two other shots with an xG rating above 0.10.
The one thing Celtic did successfully in that first leg is attack Atletico Madrid's box centrally. Naturally, Diego Simeone instructs his team to close off the center parts of the pitch, force the ball out wide and dare teams to beat them with crosses. The first goal from Kyogo Furuhashi came from a beautiful one two between him and Matt O'Riley right through the center of Atletico's low block. If they can continue to make these sorts of moves, they will have hope of getting a result in Madrid.
Atletico Madrid vs Celtic
Prediction
The final expected goals tally from the match in Glasgow favored Atletico Madrid 2.6 to 0.9, but that is very misleading. 1.50 of Atletico's expected goals tally came off of the Griezmann missed penalty and follow up goal, meaning Atletico only created 1.1 expected goals from open play in Glasgow.
Celtic were good enough in possession and building out of the back to give them hope for this second leg and playing a more passive mid-block out of possession has helped them improve defensively.
This price is way too high for an Atletico Madrid given what we saw in the first leg. If you take away the Griezmann penalty and follow up, the xG tally would have been 1.1 to 0.9, which shows how even of a match it truly was.
Let's also think about this from the betting market perspective. Home field advantage is the Champions League is worth about 35 cents to the moneyline, so flipping the same match from one stadium to the other you would see a 70-cent difference in the moneyline price from the first leg. Atletico Madrid closed as a -120 favorite in Glasgow, so Atletico at home should be a -190 favorite, but instead they are sitting as high as -350 at some books.
I only have Atletico Madrid projected at -168 home favorite, so I love the value on Celtic +1.5 at -103.
Pick: Celtic +1.5 (-103 via bet365)
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