Brentford vs. Brighton & Hove Albion Betting Preview: Will Both Attacks Find Success?
Michael Regan/Getty Images. Pictured: Brighton & Hove Albion standout Danny Welbeck and his teammates celebrate a goal against Manchester United.
- Brentford squares off against Brighton on Friday afternoon in the Premier League.
- Where does the value lie in the mid-table fixture?
- Nicholas Hennion breaks down the contest and issues his best bet.
Brentford vs. Brighton Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-105 / -130)|
|Day | Time||Friday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
To kick off Matchday 11 in the English Premier League, Brentford welcomes Brighton & Hove Albion to the Brentford Community Stadium.
The Bees are seeking an end to a three-match winless run. Over their past three games, manager Thomas Frank's side is 0-2-1 (W-L-D) with the two losses coming against Arsenal and Newcastle United. Meanwhile, Brighton is 0-1-1 (W-L-D) since the departure of Graham Potter and dropped all three points last week at home against Tottenham.
Last season, Brighton dominated this head-to-head and captured all three points in both meetings.
Brentford A Different Team At Home
Just as it did last season, Brentford has played infinitely better at home than on the road.
Through four home fixtures, Brentford has a +2.27 expected goals on target differential versus a -1.16 xGOT differential away from home. Plus, it has dropped points only once in those four home fixtures and has created 1.95 xGOT per 90 minutes in home matches against Arsenal, Leeds United, Everton and Manchester United.
Only six sides have created more expected goals on target at home than Brentford, which simultaneously sits in a tie for fifth in home big scoring chances.
Defensively, Frank's side has also performed above-average in London. In those same four fixtures, Brentford has conceded only six goals against 5.51 xGOT and eight big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.
Brighton Enduring Mixed Spell
Since the departure of Graham Potter, Brighton's results have been mixed.
Against Liverpool, the Seagulls created 2.61 xGOT at Anfield and won the match on xGOT, limiting the Reds to only 2.31 xGOT, per fotmob.com. Last week against Tottenham, it was a different story as Brighton created only 0.7 xGOT while limiting Tottenham to 0.49 in the same category.
Much like Brentford, this is a team that performs better at home. As it stands, Brighton has a +0.76 xGOT differential per 90 minutes away from home versus a +1.14 xGOT differential per 90 minutes at the Amex.
Still, the strength of this Brighton side remains its defense. Brighton leads the league in expected goals on target against and ranks tied for fourth in big scoring chances against.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I'm still awaiting further data on Brighton under Roberto De Zerbi before I consider backing Brighton, so it's a pass on the side here.
However, I do see some value in the prop market, specifically in both teams to score. Across its past home meetings with non-big six sides, Brentford has done very well to get on the scoreboard.
Over its past 15 home fixtures against such opposition, Brentford has failed to score only three times — one of which was in a match where they went down a man 11 minutes in — and has created nearly 1.6 expected goals per 90 minutes.
At the same time, Brentford has only kept a clean sheet in five of those games and allowed Leeds and Everton — its first two non-big six home opponents this year — to create 1.75 xG/90 minutes.
It feels dangerous to fade the Brighton defense, but I'm willing to take a shot with a solid home attack. Back BTTS "yes" at -135 or better.
The Pick: Both Teams to Score – "Yes" (-130)