Brentford vs Man City Predictions, Odds, Picks | Premier League Match Preview
Matt McNulty/Getty. Pictured: Erling Haaland.
Brentford vs Man City Odds
| Brentford Odds | +700 |
| Man City Odds | -300 |
| Draw | +450 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +170 |
Here's everything you need to know about Brentford vs. Man City on Monday, Feb. 5 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
Arsenal's dominant 3-1 home win against Liverpool on Sunday was also a win for Manchester City's title hopes, as the Cityzens now control their own destiny to yet another Premier League title. Manchester City are five points back of Liverpool at the top of the table, but they have two games in hand on the Reds and can close the gap to two in London on Monday Night Football as they visit Brentford.
The Bees played a thrilling 3-2 match at Spurs in the mid-week, but a calamitous 10-minute period just after halftime saw them concede three goals and come up empty in points despite a solid underlying performance. Brentford's attack has looked rejuvenated with the return of Ivan Toney — who has two goals in two matches — but the defensive issues and goalkeeping continue to push the Bees down in the table.
Brentford are playing like a league average team, but they sit 15th in the table entering Monday, just three points clear of the relegation zone.
Here is my Brentford vs Man City prediction and Premier League match preview.
Brentford
By pure expected goal differential, the Bees sit sixth in the Premier League at +0.29 xG difference per 90 minutes. The Bees remain the most efficient transition attack in the league in turning final third entries into box entries, and that's despite playing most of the season without Toney. Brentford are still sixth in expected threat, sixth in xG per set piece and eighth in attacking xG created without penalties included.
The Bees have run quite cold from a finishing perspective, and this isn't the first time we've seen Brentford underperform their underlying xG data in attack. It happened to Brentford in their first year in the Premier League and was followed up with an excellent run of goal scoring form. It's a temporary blip, and even a bad 15-match stretch shouldn't be overreacted to.
Brentford are still producing 1.52 xG per 90 since November began. The goals will come if they continue to get into this above average scoring positions, and Manchester City's defense is more vulnerable this season when compared to years past. These two sides haven't met this year yet, but keep in mind that Brentford produced 2.6 xG and three goals against the Cityzens in two meetings last season.
Neal Maupay's production as the second striker in the system has also been underrated this season. He scored the opener against Spurs on Wednesday and he's only played 9.5 90s this year. In those minutes, Maupay has created 0.65 xG + xA per 90. His finishing issues are well documented, but it's not a coincidence that the Bees have scored five goals in two games since Toney joined alongside him.
Looking for a new sportsbook? Our sportsbook reviews have you covered!
Man City
The biggest difference between Manchester City this season and last season is the drop off in defensive metrics. They've had to push more numbers forward because of the absence of Kevin de Bruyne and it's hurt the defensive metrics. The absence and lack of fitness of John Stones has hurt the team's ability to strangle possession and Ruben Dias hasn't be as dominant of a defender this year by the eye test.
The City press isn't nearly as ferocious either, and the result is that opponents have slightly more possession, complete a higher percentage of their passes and create more chances. City conceded 0.83 xG per 90 last year and this year it's up to 0.98. Their field tilt numbers are slightly worse and the defense is just 10th in the PL in build-up completion rate allowed.
Manchester City also have shown some real weaknesses in both transition defense and set piece defense, two areas where Brentford consistently excel. The Cityzens are expected to be as healthy as they've been since opening day with Erling Haaland, De Bruyne, Phil Foden and the full complement of attackers ready to unload on a middling Brentford defense. But the market is underrating Brentford generally and especially in how relatively vulnerable City's defense is this season.
Sports betting is coming to the Tar Heel State! Stay up to date with the latest news about BetMGM North Carolina.
Brentford vs Man City
Prediction
Manchester City's ability to completely dominate opponents hasn't been nearly as the same level this season. Ederson has taken a step back as a shot-stopper, City aren't keeping as much of the ball and the market is overvaluing their defensive strength with this line.
Instead of backing Brentford on the spread in the match, I've chosen to avoid their defensive issues and focus on Brentford's improved attack with Toney back in the lineup. Brentford won't have much of the ball in this match, but when they do have it, they'll face less resistance than matchups of the past. Brentford haave already shown their ability to stun top teams on the break and they'll threaten City on Monday Night Football.
Pick: Brentford First Half Team Total Over 0.5 (+180) | Both Teams to Score (-125)
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
