Brentford vs Tottenham Odds, Pick | Sunday Premier League Analysis
Tom Dulat/Getty. Pictured: Mark Flekken.
Brentford vs. Tottenham Odds
| Brentford Odds | +170 |
| Tottenham Odds | +155 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Total (Over / Under) | 2.5 -150 / +120 |
Brentford and Tottenham meet for a North London Derby to begin their respective Premier League seasons.
The Bees had a historic season last year, finishing in ninth place and only a few points out of a Europa Conference League spot.
Thomas Frank's side has been one of the most difficult teams to play outside of the big six given their unique style of play. They beat Tottenham at the Brentford Community Stadium last season, so we'll see if they can make it two in a row.
Tottenham are going through a transitional period at the moment. Former Celtic manager Ange Postecoglu is now in charge, which means the style of play is going to be different and more exciting. With that is going to come with some growing pains. Not to mention, Harry Kane just left to sign with Bayern Munich.
Here is my Brentford vs Tottenham pick.
Brentford
The Bees were the best team in the Premier League last year at taking points off the big six, especially at home. In their six matches versus the big six at the Brentford Community Stadium, they beat Manchester City, Tottenham, Liverpool and Manchester United. They drew Chelsea and lost to Arsenal.
Brentford lost their starting goalkeeper David Raya and Ivan Toney is going to be out for half of the season, but Brentford already have replacements in for them. Kevin Schade came over from Freiburg at the January transfer deadline and featured quite a bit towards the end of last season. He’s a tall striker that has one of the best aerial dual win percentages in Europe, which plays right into Brentford’s strength of being the best team in the Premier League on set pieces. They also had already signed Raya’s replacement in Mark Flekken from Freiburg.
So going into match week one, there shouldn’t be a massive drop-off for Brentford, who had essentially the same xG differential as Tottenham last season.
Brentford are a brute to play against because of their distinct style of play. The Bees are built on being solid in their low block, effective in transitional opportunities and being one of the best set piece teams in the Premier League.
Last season, when Brentford were out of possession defending in their own final third, they allowed the second-lowest final third to penalty box conversion rate, just highlighting how good they are defending in and around the 18-yard box. They finished the season averaging 1.56 xG per 90 minutes, better than Tottenham, Chelsea and Aston Villa. They also did it while only holding an average of 43.3% possession. Since the Bees don’t hold a lot of possession, they put a massive emphasis on set pieces and it’s done wonders for them as they had the best xG per set piece mark in the Premier League and also scored the most goals off of set pieces.
Tottenham
Tottenham are going through a transition period right now under Ange Postecoglu. They're not going to have the low-block counterattacking style that you saw under Antonio Conte anymore. Postecoglu’s Celtic teams were possession-dominant, building up in a 2-3-5 and always looking to counter-press high when losing possession.
That’s a really big change for a club that was 14th in PPDA, 18th in high turnovers and held only 50% possession on average last season. So, there are going to be some growing pains for this team. Brentford are absolutely not the team you want to face, especially on the road when you are trying to change your system.
You add to that your leading goalscorer and the guy was everything to your attack for the last five years is gone only a few days before the season begins. Kane started all 38 matches last season, scored 30 of the team's 68 goals, and now Richarlison is going to have to fill those massive shoes after scoring just one Premier League goal last season.
Brentford vs. Tottenham
Betting Pick & Prediction
The betting market is going to underrate Tottenham as the season goes along because their style of play under Postecoglu is going to raise their ceiling, but right now their floor is quite low and going on the road to play against a team like Brentford when you are changing systems and just lost your once in a generation striker a few days ago is not the most ideal situation.
Brentford will let Tottenham have the ball and build out of the back, but life is going to be very difficult for Tottenham trying to enter Brentford's penalty area and I am not sure they have the attackers right now to be able to consistently break down low blocks, especially one as good as Brentford's.
Tottenham projected as a slight favorite on the road, so I like the value on Brentford at +170
Pick: Brentford ML (+170 or better)
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