Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Liverpool FA Cup Odds, Pick: Soccer Expert’s Best Cup Bet Includes Prop Market

Brighton The Better Team at the Moment

Brighton completely dismantled Liverpool when these to met two weeks ago. They controlled 61% of the possession, out-touched Liverpool in the penalty area 36-to-15, and beat them on xG 1.9 to 1.0.

The biggest stat of all though is that Brighton had an 89.9% build up completion percentage and Liverpool’s PPDA was 13.2. The Reds normally allow a Premier League-low 73.7% buildup completion percentage and their PPDA is 10.7. 

Brighton were able to play right through the middle of the pitch and get the ball out wide even though Liverpool were playing narrow and tried desperately to stop Brighton from doing just that.

Liverpool are still without Luis Diaz, Diogo Jota, Roberto Firmino and Virgil van Djik. Meanwhile,Trent Alexander-Arnold and Robertson were terrible at defending in space against Kaoru Mitoma and Solly March, so Brighton should be confident again.

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Liverpool Not The Same Side They Once Were

Liverpool have a lot of problems at the moment and the core issue is that they are not as dominant in the midfield as they’ve been in years past.

Thiago, Fabinho and Jordan Henderson are not able to cover ground like they used to and they are forced to be the ones to make runs into the box to support the attack, which is needed for Liverpool’s attack. However, that means it’s the job of one of the three guys I just mentioned to make runs into the box when Liverpool have possession in the final third.

So, when Liverpool lose the ball, suddenly one or two of their best midfielders defending in transition are caught too far up the pitch and teams can exploit them in transition. 

The other problem is Liverpool need to change their style of play and stop pressing Brighton high if they want to have any chance of getting a different result. That is not in Jurgen Klopp's DNA, so Liverpool are again going to fall into Brighton's trap and get caught out of position time and time again.

Beyond that, we have a Liverpool defense without Virgil van Djik that is already allowing 1.32 npxG per 90 minutes, which is 11th in the Premier League. This is the same Liverpool team that is allowing far too many high-quality chances, as the Reds have allowed 22 big-scoring chances this season. Plus, Alisson is still running ridiculously hot in net right now, as he leads the Premier League with a +8.1 post shot xG +/-.

Brighton vs. Liverpool Pick

The biggest question you have to ask is, what is going to change this time around for Liverpool? I can't see a world where they are able to only press Brighton effectively and prevent the Seagulls from tilting the field on them. Oh yeah, and they also have to stop Brighton in transition.

The line has crashed for Liverpool, who were around +110 two weeks ago and did open as a favorite, but now have been bet down to a straight pick'em. I have Brighton projected at +148, so there is not much value on the moneyline.

However, I do love the Brighton team total over 1.5 goals, which is currently sitting at +105, as they have created over 1.5 xG in both meetings with Liverpool and I have them projected for 1.99 goals.

Pick: Brighton Team Total Over 1.5 (+105 via BetRivers)