Brighton & Hove Albion vs Man City Odds, Pick: Take Seagulls With Favorable Situation

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Man City Odds, Pick: Take Seagulls With Favorable Situation article feature image

Alex Livesey/Getty. Pictured: Kalvin Phillips.

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Man City Odds

Wed, May 24
3 p.m. ET
USA Network

Brighton & Hove Albion Odds


Man City Odds

Over/Under3.5 (+110/ -138)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(-200 / +150)
Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Brighton & Hove Albion and Manchester City meet at the Amex for a midweek match with both of their Premier League seasons already wrapped up.

For the first time in the club's 121 year history, Brighton will be playing in Europe after beating Southampton 3-1 on Sunday. The Seagulls have been giant killers this season with wins over Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea, so they should never be taken lightly even if they are facing the Premier League champions.

Manchester City have won their fifth Premier League title in the last six years after ripping off an unprecedented 15 straight wins to erase Arsenal's eight point cushion. The Cityzens' focus now turns to the Champions League final against Inter Milan and the FA Cup final against Manchester United as they look to win the treble.

Brighton Putting a Bow on Phenomenal Season

Roberto De Zerbi has turned Brighton into an offensive force. Since he took over on October 1st, Brighton have a +0.90 xGD per 90 minutes in the Premier League, which is third-best during that time frame. He also has guided Brighton into a Europa League spot for the time in the club's history. So, how has he done it?

His style of play is uber-aggressive. De Zerbi demands Brighton play out of the back and when they do, they bait their opponent into pressing them high, creating space in the middle. It's usually a 4-2-4 build up structure with the two midfielders playing very deep and the four attackers pressing up very high, which creates a ton of space once they beat the first line of the press. So, Brighton turs into a fast paced transitional opportunity team when they have a numerical superiority against the opponent's back line.

Brighton aren't likely going to hold more possession than Manchester City, but their 3-0 win against Arsenal shows what they are capable of and how the aggressive style of play from De Zerbi can cause problems for teams that build out from the back.

🔵 Team Analysis

▫️ Arsenal – Brighton

▫️ De Zerbi build-up adjustments to face Arteta's high press : width, Caicedo's role…


— Mar’tics (@martics97) May 15, 2023

They man-mark high pressed Arsenal throughout the entire match, which requires individual players to be at their best and Brighton were causing Arsenal all sorts of problem, as they had a PPDA of 8.1 and only allowed a 79.6% build completion percentage to one of the best build up teams in the world at their own ground. Thus, they are absolutely capable of doing the same thing to Manchester City, especially when City have nothing to play for.

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Man City in Clear Rest Position 

Pep Guardiola is the best manager in the world and it's because of his ability to constantly tinker with his tactics to find the right balance. He has changed his formation to a 3-2-4-1 and is playing four center backs plus Rodri, giving Manchester City ultimate defensive control. Granted, all of his defenders are outstanding ball carriers and passers, so there isn't too much of a drop off and City can continue to play out of the back and control possession.

You've also seen Guardiola's City put on counter-pressing clinics against some of the best build up teams in the world. In the second leg against Real Madrid, Manchester City forced 12 high turnovers, which ultimately led them to a 78.3% field tilt, meaning that Real Madrid could not build out from the back.

We've also seen Manchester City sit off, concede possession and look to be the ones playing in transition. It happened in the first meeting against Arsenal and over the two legs against Bayern Munich in the Champions League. Guardiola knows how good Brighton is at building up from the back, so don't be surprised to see Brighton being the ones controlling more of the possession.

“Pay attention to what I’m about to say, I’m convinced in what I’m saying that Roberto De Zerbi is one of the most influential managers in the last 20 years”.

“Brighton deserve the compliments and success”.

Pep 🤝🏻 De Zerbi


— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) May 23, 2023

Now, if Manchester City had something to play for and were this number it'd be the easiest pass in the world, but Guardiola would be crazy not to rest guys with two finals coming up in the near future.

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Man City Pick

brighton-man city-pick

I really wish this match had something at stake because it would be fascinating to see how both clubs would set up if both needed a win.

With the fixture pile up that has been happening for Manchester City, I find it hard to believe that they don't rotate a lot of the starters. Additionally, Brighton are one of the few teams that can give Manchester City problems in build up play with their counter-pressing.

It's the final home match of the season for Brighton and it's against the Premier League champions, so I don't see De Zerbi resting anybody and the Seagulls will be up for this match.

Even if City had something to play for I would only have them projected as a +111 favorite on the road at the Amex – that is how good De Zerbi's Brighton have been.

Pick: Brighton +0.5 (+100) 

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