Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund Betting Odds & Pick: Under is the Play in Battle Between Top Bundesliga Squads (Jan. 19)

Leverkusen vs. Dortmund Odds

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Tuesday's Bundesliga slat is headlined by a top four clash between Bayern Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund.

After a red hot start to the season, Leverkusen has hit a dreaded run of form, losing three of their last four matches, including a loss at Union Berlin on Friday.  Despite their bad run of form, they are still holding onto the third spot in the table, but another loss would see them potentially drop out of the top four as we hit the half way point in the season.

Dortmund's season has been an absolute roller coaster and was encapsulated by their 1-1 draw with Mainz on Saturday when Marco Reus missed a match-winning penalty in the 76th minute. They've been as a high as beating RB Leipzig 3-1 on the road to losing to VfB Stuttgart 5-1 at home. The question on Tuesday is which Dortmund side will we see at the BayArena.

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Leverkusen

Ever since Leverkusen lost Kai Havertz to Chelsea, they've been desperately struggling to create high-quality chances. Even though they are in third place, Die Werkself is 12th in expected goals for per match at 1.27. Compare that to last season with Havertz, they created 1.80 xG per match. So, it's clear that they have not been able to replace his production. In fact, a lot of their struggles in front of net has come in their last four matches, as they are averaging only 0.65 xG per match.

Another reason Leverkusen has seen a big downturn in their xG output is they've switched from a 4-2-3-1 formation to a 4-3-3, likely due to the departure of Havertz. The switch in formation has had a big effect, as last season out of the 4-3-2-1 they averaged 2.12 xG per 90 minutes, when now they are only averaging 1.45 out of the 4-3-3.

The reason, though, that Leverkusen are in third place is because of their defense, which is allowing only 1.01 xG per match. That is a drastic improvement from last season when Die Werkself was allowing 1.46 xG per match. In fact, they held Bayern Munich to only 1.39 xG last month, so this defense is capable of shutting down Dortmund's high flying attack.

Dortmund

It's been a weird, interesting season for Dortmund, as they're currently in fourth place despite firing their manager Lucien Favre more than a month ago. Although things on the surface look like a mess for Dortmund, their underlying metrics are actually quite good.

Die Borussen's offense has been clicking on all cylinders, scoring 2.06 xG per match and that even with Erling Haaland missing five matches due to injury. Haaland is the driving force behind Dortmund's attack, as he is averaging 0.92 xG per 90 minutes this season, which is the second best average in the Bundesliga.

What's interesting about this Dortmund team is how much better they are playing out of the 4-2-3-1 than they did last season. During the 2019-20 campaign, Dortmund only had a +2.20 xGD and allowed 1.41 xG per 90 minutes when playing out of that formation. Through 16 matches this season, Die Borussen has a 11.60 xGD and is allowing only 0.84 xG per 90 minutes. So, the biggest improvements have clearly come in the defensive third of the pitch.

Betting Analysis & Picks

Everyone's natural inclination when they see these two clubs face off is to take the over. However, I think this is going to be a much tighter match than expected, especially since these are two of the top four defenses in Bundesliga.

I only have 2.63 goals projected for this match, so I'll back Under 3 goals at -112 (DraftKings).

Pick: Under 3 goals (-112)