Bayern Munich vs. Fortuna Dusseldorf Betting Odds and Picks: Will Bayern Continue Its Bundesliga Dominance? (Saturday, May 30)
Federico Gambarini/Pool via Getty Images. Pictured: Robert Lewandowski
- Bayern Munich are huge -1300 favorites over Fortuna Dusseldorf's in the updated odds for their Bundesliga match on Saturday afternoon.
- Bayern are on their way to winning their eighth Bundesliga title in a row, will they make it look easy over Dusseldorf?
- Anthony Dabbundo shares his betting strategy for Bayern vs. Dusseldorf:
Bayern Munich vs. Dusseldorf Odds
|Bayern Munich odds||-1300
|Time||Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET|
Bayern Munich’s midweek victory over Borussia Dortmund all but secured that Diw Roten will again be champions of the Bundesliga for the eighth season in a row. They now have a seven-point cushion with just six matches to go.
At the other end of the table, Dusseldorf are in 16th place, fighting off potential relegation with three matches upcoming against Bayern, Dortmund, and Leipzig.
Dusseldorf are the league’s worst team from a statistical standpoint so it’s no surprise to see their trip to take on Bayern being priced as one of the biggest mismatches of the season.
Bayern on the moneyline isn’t even worth a look, and I don’t feel comfortable laying the three-goal spread given my questions about Bayern’s desire to get a big scoring margin playing its third game in eight days.
If holding a lead in the second half, I envision a scenario where Bayern manager Hansi Flick uses his five allotted subs to provide much needed rest to some of his top attacking talents who have logged a lot of minutes since returning from a lengthy layoff.
But Saturday’s match offers value in another area, where I’m expecting Bayern to have no issues dispatching Dusseldorf right from the opening kickoff. When the two teams met earlier this season, Bayern scored three first half goals and cruised into the finish in a 4-0 win. Dusseldorf rank second to last in goals scored, last in expected goals for, and last in xG difference per 90 minutes. Although they are unbeaten in their last five (one win, four draws), Dusseldorf haven’t played anyone in the top half of the table.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Dusseldorf’s early game defense numbers don’t look that bad at surface level, as they have conceded seven goals in the opening 30 minutes of matches this season. But according to xG, that number should be closer to 13.09.
Opponents’ inability to score early on Dusseldorf has been more a run of good fortune than anything else. Meanwhile, Bayern have jumped early on its opponents, scoring 16 goals in the opening 15 minutes, their second highest scoring 15-minute stretch of the game, behind only the 15 minutes after halftime.
We saw in Bayern’s win against Eintracht Frankfurt last weekend that once they went up 3-0, the defense switched off for consecutive corners and allowed back-to-back goals. Dusseldorf have scored five goals from corners this year, which could leave the chance for Bayern to be caught sleeping again. But I don’t see Dusseldorf creating much of anything from open play, which keeps me from taking any type of over bet.
I’ll back Bayern to jump on Dusseldorf, scoring twice in the opening half on FanDuel. If this can’t be found on your outlet, first half over 1.5 (-160) also offers value
The bet: Bayern to score 2 or more first half goals (-110)