Bundesliga Updated Betting Odds, Picks and Best Bets: RB Leipzig vs. Borussia Dortmund (Saturday, June 20)

Credit:

Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images. Pictured: Timo Werner

  • RB Leipzig are slight favorites over Borussia Dortmund for their Bundesliga match on Saturday morning.
  • Second-place Borussia Dortmund have been outperforming their expected goals all season, will that trend continue against Die Roten Bullen?
  • BJ Cunningham previews the match, which begins at 9:30 a.m. ET on FS2:

Borussia Dortmund at RB Leipzig Odds, Pick

Dortmund odds +200 (BET NOW)
Leipzig odds +125 (BET NOW)
Draw odds +265 (BET NOW)
Over/Under 3 (-110/-112)
(BET NOW)
Time Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET
TV FS2

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Two of Germany’s most exciting teams will do battle on Saturday morning as Dortmund heads to the Red Bull Arena to take on RB Leipzig. Both teams will look to make amends for poor performances during the week.

RB Leipzig blew a two-goal lead at home to draw with Fortuna Dusseldorf, while Dortmund were stunned at Signal Iduna Park by bottom-feeder Mainz.

RB Leipzig will have much more at stake on Saturday as a loss could potentially put their Champions League berth in jeopardy.

Dortmund on the other hand, have secured a Champions League spot for next season, so there’s not much for BVB to gain with a win at Leipzig.

RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig has struggled at the Red Bull Arena since the Bundesliga returned to play. Die Roten Bull have tied all four matches at home and their +1.21 xG differential leaves a lot to be desired, especially since all of their opponents were ranked outside of the top seven.

It’s been a particular run of form as Leipzig were one the best home teams in the Bundesliga before the break, averaging 2.1 xG per match while only conceding an average of 1.10 expected goals.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


One thing to note is that Leipzig confirmed the reports that their best player, Timo Werner, will transfer to Chelsea at the end of the season. Werner is expected to remain with Die Roten Bullen until the end of the Bundesliga season and until we hear otherwise, I’d count Werner in for this match since Leipzig really need a result

Even if Werner doesn’t play I think RB Leipzig have enough firepower to get by an overrated Dortmund squad.

Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund are the most overrated team in Germany and they are starting to regress. For the year, Dortmund’s expected goals record is significantly lower than their actual results:

  • Actual Goal Differential: +45
  • Expected Goal Differential: +23.88

Over their last 3 matches, Die Borussen has only generated 1.18 xG per game, which is a significant downturn from their season average of 1.91 xG.

With seemingly nothing to play for, it will be interesting to see how Lucien Favre selects his team. I would assume he would go with a strong starting XI, but I could see Favre giving some of his younger players players some experience.

Analysis

Dortmund’s expected goals numbers show them to be an overrated team, so my model actually makes RB Leipzig a decent favorite in this match:

  • RB Leipzig projected odds: -121 (54.72% win probability)
  • Dortmund projected odds: +340 (22.74%)
  • Draw projected odds: +344 (22.54%)
  • RB Leipzig projected xG: 1.87
  • Dortmund projected xG: 1.16

Based on the numbers above and whats at stake for RB Leipzig, I think there is good value on them to take all three points at home.

Pick: RB Leipzig +125
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