Hoffenheim vs. Borussia Dortmund Odds, Betting Picks, Predictions (Saturday, Oct. 17)

Hoffenheim vs. Borussia Dortmund Odds

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The Bundesliga’s entertainers travel to Hoffenheim on Matchday 4 for a fixture that figures to feature plenty of goals.

Borussia Dortmund has started its season by bookending a 2-0 loss to FC Augsburg with a 3-0 win over Borussia Monchengladbach and a 4-0 win over SC Freiburg before the international break. Hoffenheim couldn’t build off its win over Bayern Munich in the second game and lost to Frankfurt back on Oct. 3.

Here’s how the matchup looks:

Hoffenheim

Hoffenheim started the Bundesliga season on fire, beating Cologne, 3-2, before an upset 4-1 thrashing of European champion Bayern Munich. Hoffenheim registered 2.90 xG against Cologne and surprisingly were more than good for the three points against Bayern, with an xG difference of 2.52-1.17.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Hoffenheim manager Sebastian Hoeneß was very disappointed with his side’s performance in a 2-1 loss to Eintracht Frankfurt. Hoffenheim allowed 3.57 xG while registering just 0.77.

The good news from Hoffenheim is they have one of the hottest goalscorers in Europe at the moment in striker Andrej Kramaric. The Croatian leads the league with six goals and has scored at least a dozen for the club in each of the past four league campaigns. With a fit Kramaric, Hoffenheim is always capable of lighting up the scoreboard like they did against Bayern when he netted a brace.

Borussia Dortmund

Due to their attacking flair and inconsistent defending, you can always count on Borussia Dortmund matches to deliver the goals. Including matches against Duisburg in the DFB-Pokal and Bayern Munich in the German Super Cup, Dortmund has scored multiple goals in four of its first five games of the season, netting three in three of those matches.

Dortmund has no lack of attacking options, and the current man of the moment is Erling Haaland, who has scored 17 league goals in 18 matches since signing for the Black and Yellow in January. He has a clear connection with 17-year-old American Gio Reyna, who registered three assists in Dortmund’s last win over Freiburg, two of which were on Haaland goals.

Jadon Sancho or Marco Reus is likely to join the duo in attack against Hoffenheim, with Thorgan Hazard playing in a wingback role to start the season and Julian Brandt thus far unable to break into the starting 11.

For all their attacking prowess, Dortmund is second in the Bundesliga in xGA this season, trailing only top-of-the-league RB Leipzig. That defense will be put to the test against Hoffenheim.

Hoffenheim vs. Borussia Dortmund Betting Pick

Hoffenheim and Dortmund sit fourth and fifth in xG in the Bundesliga, respectively, while Hoffenheim sits third in xGA at 7.15.

You hear that? It’s the sound of the ball hitting the back of the net.

With Hoffenheim both scoring and conceding chances at will and a Dortmund side full of elite attacking talent, the over of 3.5 at -106 is very good value. It will also be a test for the Black and Yellow, one I think they pass.

Hoffenheim was 11th in the Bundesliga home table last season, while Dortmund was third in away form. The Dortmund moneyline is -129, which is very reasonable for a side that will be competing at the top of the Bundesliga table throughout the season.

The Pick: Over 3.5 at -106, Dortmund -129