Bundesliga Odds, Picks, Predictions | Best Bets Across Germany

Bundesliga Odds, Picks, Predictions | Best Bets Across Germany article feature image

DeFodi Images/Getty. Pictured: Josha Vagnoman.

The international break is over and the Bundesliga is ready for the sprint to the finish of its season. There are just nine matches to go for each team in the 34-match season, and there are key races for the title, top four and relegation battle all set to play out in the final two months.

Bayern Munich take on Borussia Dortmund in the biggest fixture of the entire season, and I previewed that match here.

That's not the only high profile match on the schedule however, and I broke down my three favorite bets from across the Bundesliga:

Bundesliga Odds & Picks

Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart

Union Odds+105
Stuttgart Odds+290
Over/Under2.5 (+137 / -175)
Day | TimeSaturday |  9:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Stuttgart sit dead last in the Bundesliga table and remain one of the biggest positive regression candidates in all of Europe's top five leagues. They have an even xG difference but have run extremely poorly in close games for the better part of 1.5 full Bundesliga seasons.

Now they get to be a road underdog against a Union Berlin side that has regressed in attack and isn't able to separate from any decent opposition because of their inability to consistently create chances from open play.

Union Berlin are excellent as an underdog because Urs Fischer's side prefers to play without the ball (16th in possession percentage of 18 teams in Germany). They are excellent on set pieces when they get them and make the most of their limited touches in the opponent's penalty area. Stuttgart are middle of the league in possession rate and are the much more likely to hold more of the ball in this contest.

It's absolutely true that they don't get enough margin to separate from opponents. They don't create any big scoring chances, shots or non-penalty xG. Some of this is due to game state because they've been lucky with finishing early in games and thus held onto leads. But they've also been poor at creating chances once trailing. Stuttgart have had poor goalkeeper play but they have the profile of a team that should be around eighth or ninth.

Stuttgart just went toe-to-toe with Bayern, a week after Union were blown off the pitch by the Bavarians. The transitive property doesn't quite work that way in sports, but it can be intuitive when there's such a stark difference in matchup against a quality opponent. Union have run really well to sit third in Germany, but Stuttgart are the better team in my power ratings.

I'd bet them +0.5 at -130 or better and take their moneyline at +250 or better.

Dabbundo's Picks: Stuttgart +0.5 (-130 or better) | Stuttgart ML (+250 or better)

RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05

Leipzig Odds-188
Mainz Odds+450
Over/Under2.5 (-150 / +120)
Day | TimeSaturday |  9:30 a.m. ET
How To WatchESPN+
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

RB Leipzig are in a tricky spot here coming off the international break because they're out of the Bundesliga title race and could get caught looking ahead to a critical DFB-Pokal clash at home against Borussia Dortmund on Wednesday. That's the far more important match for Leipzig for the remainder of the first season under head coach Marco Rose.

That's not to say that Rose will rotate his team at all. Leipzig's defense is excellent and still has allowed the fewest xG and shots per match in the Bundesliga this season. Mainz's defense is excellent at protecting its own penalty area this season. Bo Svensson's side is third in the Bundesliga in box entries and ranks in the top-six since the World Cup break in xG allowed per match.

Mainz had some defensive issues entering the World Cup break, but they've reverted back to the defensively excellent side that conceded the fewest big scoring chances in the Bundesliga. In a matchup where both defenses come in undervalued by the market and Leipzig have the potential to be flat off the international break, I'll take under 3 at -140 or better.

Dabbundo's Pick: Under 3 (-132 via BetRivers, play to -140)

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Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim

Bremen Odds+130
Hoffenheim Odds+200
Over/Under2.5 (-138 / +110)
Day | TimeSunday |  11:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Hoffenheim are lined as a solid underdog on the road at Werder Bremen, but this is yet another opportunity to buy on Hoffenheim at the bottom of their market price. They had an unfortunate loss to Freiburg justbefore the international break in a match that they were about even with a top half side on the road for all 90 minutes.

By far the best unit in this entire matchup is Hoffenheim's attack, which has struggled for goals of late and has thus gotten way too deflated in the market. This is still a team that ranks in the top seven in field tilt, box entries, shots and xG created. Bremen have major defensive flaws this season and after a period of mid-table play in the first half of the season, they've regressed back toward their true talent level of a relegation side in the German top flight.

Hoffenheim spent most of the last season over-performing against their underlying numbers and they regressed hard to the point now where you have a chance to buy them. They're the better team and should be lined as a pick'em on the road. With +120 on the draw no bet line, I'd bet Hoffenheim as the more likely to win this match.

Dabbundo's Pick: Hoffenheim – Draw No Bet (+120)

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