Bundesliga Odds, Picks, Predictions: How to Bet RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt, More

Bundesliga Odds, Picks, Predictions: How to Bet RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt, More article feature image

Martin Rose/Getty. Pictured: Benjamin Heinrichs.

No one expected Union Berlin's trip to Bayern Munich to be so meaningful when the Bundesliga schedule was released in the summer,  but the calendar reads February and there's a real title race in Germany.

Union, Bayern and Borussia Dortmund all sit tied atop the German top flight on 43 points as Bayern host Union in Munich on Sunday.

It's a weekend with multiple high profile matchups, as RB Leipzig host Eintracht Frankfurt with both clubs fresh off a midweek Champions League match on Saturday and Freiburg host Leverkusen in a tricky spot for Leverkusen following their Europa League triumph in Monaco.

After cashing in last weekend on Borussia Monchengladbach's stunning upset of Bayern Munich, here are my three best bets for the German Bundesliga weekend slate.

Bundesliga Odds & Picks

FC Cologne vs Wolfsburg

Cologne Odds+135
Wolfsburg Odds+190
Over/Under2.5 (-122 / +100)
Day | TimeSaturday |  9:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

The market opened with this line near a coin flip and has moved solidly towards Cologne in the last two weeks. Cologne have the better underlying numbers and are at home, and my projections make Cologne +105 to take all three points in this league contest.

Cologne may have conceded three goals at Stuttgart last weekend, but the defense has consistently been solid in the Bundesliga otherwise. This is the same defense that held both Leipzig and Frankfurt off the board in consecutive matches and held Bayern Munich to just one goal.

In three matches against those plus attacks, Cologne conceded just 2.9 xGA and one big scoring chance. They're elite defensively on set pieces — no team concedes fewer xGA per set piece. The defense is top half in ball progression allowed metrics and holds up even better inside its own penalty area. They rank third in big chances allowed and if they do have a weakness, it's that they don't do a great job of stopping crosses. In this matchup, Wolfsburg are just 12th in crosses completed in Germany.

At the attacking end, Cologne also has a major set piece advantage against Niko Kovac's Wolfsburg. Cologne are first in xG per set piece and Wolfsburg have one of the worst set piece defenses in Germany.

It's really difficult to make the case that Wolfsburg are better than Cologne based on any underlying numbers. Cologne are the marginally better side by xG and expected threat differential and are at home. I'd bet them on the moneyline at +120 or better.

Dabbundo's PickCologne ML (+120 or better)

RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Leipzig Odds-165
Frankfurt Odds+370
Over/Under2.5 (-156 / +128)
Day | TimeSaturday |  9:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

It's a difficult spot for both of these attacks after the physical contests both had in the midweek. Eintracht Frankfurt had no answer for Napoli and also had to defend down a man for the last third of the game after Randal Kolo Muani was sent off. Leipzig went toe-to-toe with Manchester City and played them to a 1-1 stalemate, but they expended a lot of energy in that second half to win the possession battle and play their way back into the Champions League tie.

Both will face off against one another in a decently early kick off. Neither club did have to travel, which should help the legs. But even despite the spot, the total is a touch inflated. I'm still not much of a believer in this Frankfurt attack — which didn't create much at home against Werder Bremen and then managed three total shots against Napoli on Tuesday.

Frankfurt are an attack built around on big scoring chances and quality over quantity. They're bottom half of the league in expected threat, shots per 90 and field tilt. It's going to be difficult for them to sustain consistent attacks on the road against a Leipzig defense that is much improved.

Leipzig's defense has allowed the fewest shots per 90, fewest shots on goal and longest average shot distance in Germany this season. Since Marco Rose took over, they've had the best xG differential in the Bundesliga too. It's started with defense and I think they'll make it difficult for this Frankfurt attack that remains overvalued on Saturday.

Lastly, Frankfurt have finished their chances in front of goal at a ridiculous rate this season, and regression looms for this attack in finishing going forward.

Dabbundo's Pick: Under 3 (-135 or better)

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Schalke 04 vs Stuttgart

Schalke Odds+190
Stuttgart Odds+140
Over/Under2.5 (+110 / -134)
Day | TimeSaturday |  12:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Schalke and Stuttgart will face off in the main 12:30 p.m. ET kickoff on Saturday, even though it's not the most enticing matchup on paper. Stuttgart's win last week pulled them out of the relegation places, but this is still a relegation six pointer. Schalke have played four consecutive goalless draws in the Bundesliga and the net aggregate performances have been quite solid. 

They were a major positive defensive regression candidate entering the second half of the season but the market has now over adjusted from the last four matches. Schalke's defense was never going to keep conceding goals at levels 20% above the xGA numbers.

Stuttgart remain the most unfortunate team in the entire Bundesliga this season because they're tied for the relegation places despite a positive xG difference. There's a ton more room for this attack to score goals in bunches when you consider their underlying process. Stuttgart are a top five attack in box touches, passes and carries into the penalty area and total shots.

The big scoring chances, xG and goals are lacking behind that a bit, but a matchup with a defense that is still quite poor could be a great get right spot for the Stuttgart attack.

Given the closeness of the three-way moneyline, you'd expect a much higher juice on both teams to score. As long as it is -125 or better, I'd bet both teams to score on Saturday. I'm playing against the market overreaction to the recent low scoring contests both have played in.

Dabbundo's Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-125 or better)

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