Cadiz vs. Girona Odds, Pick | La Liga Betting Preview (Friday, Jan. 10)
Eric Alonso/Getty. Pictured: Eric Guiterrez.
Cadiz vs. Girona Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+120 / -146)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-112 / -112)|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
The weekend of La Liga action kicks off on Friday as relegation side Cadiz host Girona.
It’s been another dismal season for Cadiz, who find themselves in the relegation zone. However, they are only one point from safety. Their performances at home have been what has ultimately kept them from falling near the bottom of the table, as they’re unbeaten in their last seven matches at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
Girona are having a tremendous first season since promotion, as they’re currently sitting in 11th place and are coming off a convincing 1-0 win over Valencia. They drew with Cadiz 1-1 in the last meeting, but they really deserved all three points, so we’ll see if they can get the win they deserve this time around.
Cadiz Performing as Underlying Analytics Would Anticipate
Cadiz have one of the worst offenses across Europe. We are 20 matches into the season and they are averaging just 0.85 npxG per 90 minutes. Cadiz are dead last in touches in the penalty area, passes completed into the penalty area, touches in the penalty area, progressive passes + dribbles and xThreat.
The problem is Cadiz are one of the most direct teams in Spain, but they’ve been completely inefficient in transition.
(image via The Analyst)
The attacking talent is really lacking for Cadiz as they have nobody on their roster that has over a 0.25 xG per 90 minute scoring rate. Plus, they can’t play through pressure and are incredibly set-piece reliant, which really doesn’t work against Girona.
On the other end of the pitch, Cadiz try to play a compact 4-4-2, but they are are really bad at keeping opponents out of their penalty area. Cadiz are allowing 1.66 npxG in the lowest-scoring league among Europe’s top five leagues.
Girona Firing on The Offensive End
The reason Girona are currently hovering around the middle of the table is because they have one of the best offenses in all of Spain. They are averaging 1.41 npxG per 90 minutes, which is the fourth-best mark in Spain, behind only Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid.
Their ability to threaten the opponent’s penalty area out wide and through the middle of the pitch is crucial for them. Girona are sixth in box entries and have completed the third-most crosses into the penalty area. That is huge against Cadiz, who are dead last in La Liga at defending crosses.
The last time Girona faced Cadiz they did draw 1-1, but Girona ended up creating 2.3 xG, completing 15 passes into the penalty area (six via crosses) and having 22 shots for the match, so it’s a real shame they weren’t able to get all three points.
Girona are also one of the best teams in Spain at building out from the back. They have more build up attacks than direct attacks and are top eight in Spain at 10+ pass sequences, per The Analyst.
Defense has been an issue for Girona this season, as they’re allowing 1.29 npxG, which is 15th in La Liga. With that being said, they are facing one of the worst defenses in La Liga and will be holding a majority of the possession.
Cadiz vs. Girona Pick
Even though Cadiz have been on a good run at home, there is no reason why this match should be close to a pick’em.
Girona’s offense is miles better than Cadiz and their ability to defend set pieces and utilize build up play to attack in wide areas should help them break down one of the worst low blocks in Spain.
I have Girona projected at +112, so I like the value on them at +155.
Pick: Girona ML +155
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