Carabao Cup Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction & Best Bets: Can Christian Pulisic, Chelsea Put Away Tottenham in EFL Cup Semifinal?

Carabao Cup Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction & Best Bets: Can Christian Pulisic, Chelsea Put Away Tottenham in EFL Cup Semifinal? article feature image
Credit:

Chris Brunskill/Fantasista/Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham star Heung Son-min.

  • Chelsea sits as a +120 ML favorite ahead of Wednesday's Carabao Cup semifinal clash with Tottenham.
  • The Blues hold a 2-0 edge in aggregate after their win in the first leg, so Spurs needs a big result to advance.
  • Nick Hennion breaks things down below and explains why he thinks the defenses will shine in this contest.

Spurs vs. Chelsea Odds

Spurs Odds +165
Chelsea Odds +155
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-125 / -115)
Day | Time Wednesday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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Odds updated as of Wednesday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Following a 2-0 victory for Chelsea in the first leg, the Blues travel to Tottenham on Wednesday for the second leg of their Carabao Cup tie.

A fifth-minute goal from Kai Havertz gave the Blues the lead at Stamford Bridge, with a Ben Davies own goal in the 34th minute sealing the victory. That marked Chelsea’s third consecutive win against Spurs across all competitions.

However, Spurs get a chance to bounce back at home at a venue in which they’re unbeaten since the arrival of manager Antonio Conte. Plus, the hosts have achieved a result in its last two EPL Cup matches against Chelsea on home turf.

With no away goals in play, Tottenham need at least a two-goal victory in order to extend the tie or advance outright, while Chelsea can win, draw or lose by one to advance to the final.

Spurs on Uphill Climb After Opening Defeat

For Tottenham, the first leg of this semifinal played out as poorly as possibly.

Spurs managed only five total shots across 90 minutes and didn’t generate a single big scoring chance. Plus, Tottenham was out-chanced by a 16-4 margin and leaky defensive play led to four big scoring chances for Chelsea.

Perhaps of even larger concern for potential Spurs backers will be their performance against Morecambe in this past Saturday’s FA Cup action. The club entered the final 15 minutes down 1-0 before Harry Winks, Lucas Moura and Harry Kane scored to rescue the heavy favorites.

That said, there’s definitely a case to be made Tottenham can get a result. Spurs are unbeaten in its last five home Premier League fixtures (four wins; one draw) and have only lost twice outright at home this season. Ironically, one of those defeats came at the hands of Chelsea, who slapped Tottenham in 3-0 rout in September and held a 2.0-0.7 expected goals margin, per fbref.com.

At the same time, though, Tottenham is unbeaten across its last five EFL Cup home matches and hasn’t produced an outright loss in the competition’s play at home since its fourth-round loss to West Ham United in the 2017 event.

However, if there’s a trend that should concern Tottenham supporters it’s the team’s record against the “big six” this campaign. Although it’s due for a good amount of positive offensive regression through five matches against such sides – four goals on seven xG – Tottenham has lost four of five games against them on xG and has allowed either two or more goals or two xG in all five tilts.

Chelsea Might Be Focused on EPL Clash

Although Chelsea dominated the first leg at Stamford Bridge, there’s an argument to be made this leg could be a let-down spot.

After playing this match, Chelsea will travel to Manchester City for Saturday’s huge match that has massive league title implications. For that reason, I’m not sure bettors should expect manager Thomas Tuchel to nominate his best XI for a midweek fixture in which a point will do.

However, assuming the Blues put out their best lineup, there’s a good chance they will continue to dominate Spurs. Including their first leg victory, Chelsea is now unbeaten in its last nine matches against Tottenham and has won three in a row in the xG statistics.

Furthermore, the Tottenham defense has yet to demonstrate an answer for Chelsea’s attack. In all of their last three matches against Spurs, the Blues have generated no fewer than 1.8 xG and have produced eight big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.

Plus, Chelsea’s defense is due for some positive defensive regression. In its last five EPL fixtures, Tuchel’s side has conceded five times on 3.5 xG overall. Additionally, it has held four of its last five foes under 1.0 xGA, per fbref.com.

That said, Chelsea faces a number of injury concerns ahead of this fixture. Ben Chilwell and Reece James remain out, while Trevor Chalobah, N’Golo Kanté and Thiago Silva could be sidelined as well. Plus, Edouard Mendy is away on international duty, which leaves the starting goalkeeper spot to Kepa.

All of that is to say that while Chelsea might claim victory, expect a closer contest than the first leg’s result.

Betting Analysis & Pick

I recommended the under in the first leg and find myself leaning that way again.

From where I’m sitting, I expect Chelsea to come out playing very defensively in order to protect its aggregate lead. Even with all the injury issues at the back, Chelsea’s opening-leg performance showed me it’s capable of playing good team defense.

Plus, if the Blues manage to score first and take the lead, I expect Spurs will lose some motivation. Is a two-goal victory plausible? Yes. Is a three-goal victory doable? I think not.

That’s why even though I expect Tottenham’s offense to come out chasing goals, I don’t expect they’ll abandon defensive responsibilities all together. Lastly, four of the last five meetings between these sides have finished under 2.5 goals, with the last two overs coming out slightly lucky (2.6 combined xG in September and 2.0 combined xG in February 2020).

Expect that trend to continue as these sides play to another low-scoring affair.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-115)

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