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Wednesday Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: West Ham United vs. Norwich City Betting Preview (Jan. 12)

Wednesday Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: West Ham United vs. Norwich City Betting Preview (Jan. 12) article feature image
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Craig Mercer/MB Media/Getty Images. Pictured: West Ham United standout Jarrod Bowen of West Ham United celebrates a goal with his teammates.

  • West Ham United is a solid ML favorite against Norwich City ahead of Wednesday's Premier League match.
  • However, money has come in on the Canaries and that tells us bettors think we might have live underdogs.
  • Nick Hennion breaks down the meeting below and details why he's found value on the betting total.

West Ham vs. Norwich City Odds

West Ham Odds -350
Norwich City Odds +950
Draw +425
Over/Under 2.5 (-160 / +115)
Day | Time Wednesday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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Odds updated as of Wednesday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

After claiming victory in their respective FA Cup fixtures over the weekend, West Ham United hosts Norwich City on Wednesday in a rescheduled Premier League fixture.

The Hammers arrive at this match in fifth place in the Premier League table, one point shy of fourth-place Arsenal in the hunt for the final Champions League spot. Meanwhile, Norwich is still bringing up the rear and sit three points behind 17th-place Watford, which will have two games in hand on the Canaries following this game.

Historically, the Hammers have dominated this fixture. West Ham, which has won the two most recent meetings by a 6-0 aggregate margin, is unbeaten in its last eight home matches against Norwich, which has only claimed all three points twice in the last 12 meetings.

West Ham Snaps Skid, Regaining Form

After the Hammers experienced a three-match winless run, recent form suggests they’re turning a corner.

Although it continues to produce startling defensive metrics — at least one expected-goal against in four consecutive matches and at least two xGA in two of its last four contests — West Ham’s attack appears to be picking up the slack. In its last two EPL fixtures against Watford and Crystal Palace, the club has generated seven goals and at least two xG in each outing, per fbref.com.

Plus, a return to the London Stadium should give manager David Moyes’ squad a nice confidence boost. Despite suffering a 3-2 home loss to Southampton on Boxing Day, West Ham has now won three in a row on xG at home. The only home xG losses came against Liverpool and Manchester United.

If there’s a concern for the Hammers on home soil, it’s their defensive record. Through nine fixtures at London Stadium, they have only kept a single clean sheet and never held a side below 0.8 xG in the process. That said, West Ham is due for some positive defensive regression at home, having conceded 15 times on 10 xGA, per fbref.com.

At the same time, though, West Ham is also due for a touch of negative offensive regression at the London Stadium. In those same nine fixtures, the Hammers have posted 18 goals on 13.9 xG overall.

Lastly, although this marks West Ham’s first meeting against Norwich this campaign, it has come out successfully in other matches against relegation candidates. In three matches against Watford, Burnley and Newcastle United — the three sides fighting for relegation at this point — West Ham is unbeaten (two wins; one draw) and has won all three on xG as well.

Norwich City Finds Itself in Major Trouble

After a positive start to Dean Smith’s managerial tenure at Norwich, the struggling club has come crashing down to reality.

A three-match unbeaten run in Smith’s first three fixtures in charge has followed with five consecutive losses. Perhaps even worse is that in those five fixtures against Tottenham, Manchester United, Aston Villa, Arsenal and Crystal Palace is the fact Norwich failed to score in any of them.

Additionally, Norwich has only twice managed one or more xG in those games and has allowed no fewer than 1.7 xGA in any of those five contests, per fbref.com.

While Norwich is due for a healthy amount of positive road regression — it currently holds a -20 goal differential on a -11.2 xGDiff — that latter metric is still good for the worst road xGDiff in the English top flight. Plus, Norwich has only managed a single road victory on xG and has only earned points in seven of its last 28 road league matches.

And although Norwich has generated at least one xG in four consecutive road games, further investigation suggests that might be a flawed data set. In their last three road matches against teams outside the relegation zone, the Canaries have only created two total goal-creating actions and two big scoring chances.

Moreover, the matches against Tottenham and Brentford marked the first time this season Norwich generated more than zero goal-creating actions in a single game.

All of that suggests that, as demonstrated by the odds, a victory from the Canaries here would come as a huge shock.

Betting Analysis & Pick

There are times when it’s smart to try and find value with an underdog. However, this isn’t one of those times.

Not only has West Ham dominated Norwich historically, but it has also cleaned up against relegation opponents. The Hammers have won six in a row at home against teams that were ultimately relegated, four coming by multiple goals.

And although all three of its matches against relegation candidates have so far come on the road, both of West Ham’s victories were by three goals.

On the flip side, Norwich has struggled mightily against sides that ultimately finish in the top six. In their last 10 road matches versus clubs in those positions, the Canaries have picked up points only once and allowed at least 1.75 xGA in all 10 of those fixtures.

Be sure to shop around to find the best price on West Ham here, but I’d personally be willing to lay up to two goals with the host.

Pick: West Ham -1.5 (-120) via DraftKings

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