Champions League Round of 16: Public Bettors Confident Liverpool Will Beat Bayern Munich

Champions League Round of 16: Public Bettors Confident Liverpool Will Beat Bayern Munich article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Franck Ribery, Mo Salah

  • Liverpool travel to Bayern Munich for their Round of 16 second leg with public bettors confident that they'll come away victorious.
  • Home teams have had the edge historically when tied 0-0 after the first leg, advancing 67.7% of the time, but Bayern Munich are getting little betting support.

Bayern Munich didn’t manage to score at Liverpool in the opening leg, but they do have the upper hand, historically, after coming away with a draw.

Champions League teams taking a 0-0 draw back home for the second leg have advanced 67.7% of the time (21 of 31).

Betting Odds (Tied 0-0)

Bayern Munich are listed at +110 odds to win the second leg at home, which would automatically get them through to the quarterfinals.

Another 0-0 draw would send the game to extra time, and any other draw or Bayern Munich loss would see Liverpool progress to the quarterfinals.

Although the historical trend points to Bayern Munich getting through, each club is listed with the same -110 odds to advance.

Bayern have reached the quarterfinals in eight straight seasons, last knocked out by Inter Milan in the 2010-11 Round of 16.

Injuries + Suspensions

  • Bayern Munich: Kingsley Coman (probable), David Alaba (probable), Arjen Robben (doubtful), Joshua Kimmich (out, suspension), Thomas Muller (out, suspension), Corentin Tolisso (out),
  • Liverpool: Naby Keita (out), Joe Gomez (out), Dejan Lovren (out), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (out)

Betting Market Breakdown

Bayern Munich are disadvantaged by injuries and suspensions, but home-field advantage should provide a big lift. Liverpool lost all three road games in Champions League group play which may have Jurgen Klopp a bit concerned heading back to Germany.

Liverpool have been incredibly tough defensively all season and did not concede a shot on target from Bayern Munich in the opening leg. Even more impressive, Virgil van Dijk missed that match, and he’ll be back for Wednesday’s second leg in Germany.

Each team is also in a battle in their domestic leagues with Bayern Munich tied atop the Bundesliga with Dortmund, and Liverpool one point behind Manchester City in the English Premier League.

They both won comfortably last weekend scoring six and four goals, respectively, so there should be no shortage of confidence.

Around the market, bettors have been all over Liverpool (+250) and they’ve accounted for more than 60% of wagers. The Reds opened +265 and fell all the way down to +220 before slowly trickling back up the last few days.

Bayern Munich’s moneyline has fluctuated in the +105 to +120 range and has only attracted about 15% of bets so far. It’s rare to see a home favorite getting such little support but I do expect late bettors to come in on Bayern Munich before kickoff.

At +120 of higher I like the value on Bayern to get the win at home and you can easily find those odds available out there.

In terms of the total, the majority of bets has come in on the under (2.5) which shouldn’t be a huge shock considering the 0-0 finish in the first leg.

However,  over (2.5) has seen a little bit of sharp action to move the juice from -120 to -130, and an early goal either way would really open things up for the duration of the match.

Value Plays

  • Bayern Munich (+120) vs. Liverpool
  • Over 2.5 (-125)

      • Bayern Munich and Liverpool have identical +1000 odds heading into Tuesday’s Champions League Round of 16 matches.

Want live updates of the action? Be sure to follow @actionnetsoccer on Twitter for all the latest soccer betting news around the market.

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