Champions League Round of 16: Public Bettors Believe in Manchester United at PSG

Champions League Round of 16: Public Bettors Believe in Manchester United at PSG article feature image
  • Manchester United will attempt to make history at PSG in the Round of 16 return leg, but injuries and suspensions have decimated their chances.
  • Odds have shifted heavily toward PSG over the last few weeks, although public bettors are keeping the faith on a potential Manchester United upset.

PSG have a huge cushion after beating Manchester United, 2-0, at Old Trafford in the opening leg. The win was especially satisfying considering all the injuries PSG were dealing with, and all of the betting action on Manchester United.

No Champions League club has ever overcome a 2+ goal deficit on the road in the second leg, so United could make history on Wednesday night.

The Red Devils will be severely shorthanded though, most notably they'll be without key midfielder Paul Pogba (suspension).

Odds (PSG lead 2-0)

PSG are massive -4000 favorites to advance as they take a 2-0 lead back home where they've been dominant in recent years.

Manchester United obviously have their work cut out for them at +1500 odds. None of the previous 34 teams to be down by 2+ goals heading into a road second leg have advanced in the Champions League knockout stage.

Injuries + Suspensions

  • Paris Saint Germain: Edinson Cavani (doubtful), Neymar (out), Thomas Meunier (probable)
  • Manchester United: Paul Pogba (out, suspension); Nemanja Matic, Ander Herrera, Juan Mata, Jesse Lingard, Phil Jones, Matteo Darmian, Antonio Valencia, Anthony Martial and Alexis Sanchez (all out due to injury)

Betting Market Breakdown

PSG will still be without stars Neymar and Cavani, but Manchester United are missing Pogba in addition to nine other potential starters due to injury. The market has responded in a big way toward PSG despite public bettors keeping the faith on the underdogs.

After originally opening -150 on February 12th, PSG quickly grew to -185 within a few hours. The market settled there for about a week, but in the past ten days those odds have gradually increased to -215/-220.

A mix of market adjustments and early sharp money on PSG has caused nearly a 9% change in implied win probability before the teams even take the field in Paris.



Now that Manchester United can be found in the +600 range, nearly 60% of public bettors are biting at the prospect of an upset. Whether it's blind faith or actual perceived value, there's no denying the attention toward United in recent days.

The draw has reached odds of +380, but it's been largely ignored since the result doesn't help United in any way. Less than 10% of bets have come in on stalemate even though it would suit PSG just fine.

As much as I'd like to go contrarian with the draw, it's hard to see anything but a PSG victory, and possibly by multiple goals.

Oddly enough, the over/under is currently spot on the opening number of 3 (u-120), and bettors have supported the under.

PSG now have the second-best odds to win the Champions League at +525, tied with Barcelona. Manchester United fell from 28-1 to 120-1 following the first leg defeat.


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