The Champions League is back for match day three as the group stage starts to heat up. Outside of the group of death that features PSG vs. AC Milan and Newcastle vs. Dortmund, there aren't too many high profile matches on the board this week, but that doesn't mean there isn't value or more importantly, drama.
If you'd like to see our projections for every Champions League match, you can find them here.
| Galatasaray Odds | -500 |
| Bayern Munich Odds | +1100 |
| Draw | +650 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -250 / +187 |
Bayern Munich won yet again over the weekend against Mainz, but I have major questions about whether or not this Bayern side is actually the secon-best team in Europe right now.
The market suggests so with this price, but Bayern have a negative non-penalty expected goal differential through their first two European matches this season. Bayern beat a very short-handed Manchester United side at home and then created less than 1 xG in a road trip to Copenhagen. They've taken six points from six and haven't lost a CL group match since 2016, but there's some concerns about them being overvalued here.
In the first 30 minutes of those two CL matches combined, Bayern had three total shots. When you add that with them getting handled by Manchester City in the spring, tying Leipzig and Leverkusen in the two difficult German matches and finishing with the same number of shots at Mainz on Saturday, you get a picture of a Bayern side that could be ripe for an upset. Galatasaray won't have Mauro Icardi to lead the line, but Willfried Zaha made an immediate impact in the win at Manchester United.
I'd bet Galatasaray +1 at plus money, or if you want to lay a heftier price, grab the +1.5 at -127.
Pick: Galatasaray +1.5 (-127 via BetRivers)
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| Barcelona Odds | -500 |
| Shakhtar Odds | +1100 |
| Draw | +650 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -250/ +187 |
This is a really interesting spot for Barcelona. They have El Clasico this weekend against Real Madrid and are dealing with somewhat of an injury crisis. Robert Lewandowski, Raphinha, Pedri and Frankie De Jong are all likely going to miss this match. Even in their last match against Athletic Bilbao, Barcelona played a front three of Ferran Torres, Joao Felix and Fermin Lopez, with 17-year-old Marc Guiu coming off the bench to score Barcelona's only goal.
With that as their front three, it makes it more difficult for Barcelona to break down low block and quite frankly enter the opponent's box. In La Liga this season, Barcelona are still putting up great expected goal numbers, averaging 2.26 per 90 minutes. However, they're 17th in final third to box entry conversion rate, showing they are lacking that creative aspect to get the ball into the opponent's box. Additionally, not having a target man like Lewandowski available makes it even more difficult for Barcelona to play against teams that are going to play very compact defensively and force the ball out wide and dare them to beat them with crosses.
Shakhtar are in a very interesting place at the moment. They parted ways with their manager Patrick van Leeuwen after only being in charge for three months and just hired Feyenoord assistant Marino Pusic who has been an assistant most of his career, but he did manage FC Twente in the second tier of Dutch football, finishing a top the table by 11 points bringing them back to the first tier. However, he will not be in charge for this match, which means caretaker manager Darijo Srna will be in charge for another match, who was actually the technical director for Shakhtar and not apart of the coaching staff.
In his first match in charge in the Ukrainian Premier League against FK LNZ-Lebedyn he lines Shakhtar up in a 4-1-4-1 as opposed to the usual 4-3-3 they had been playing under van Leeuwan. That formation to me is a clear sign of they were practicing how they were going to pay out of possession against Barcelona.
Shakhtar have conceded quite a few goals so far this Champions League campaign, but their first two matches they were without their best two center backs Mykola Matvienko and Valeriy Bondar, who are now fully healthy for this match.
I only have 2.78 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the under.
Pick: Under 3.5 (-125 via Caesars)
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